Analysts affirm ‘buy in May and go away’ theme as bitcoin hits $111,889 amid record options demand

All crypto boats rose again on Thursday, with bitcoin notching fresh all-time highs as bullish momentum swept through the broader crypto market.

The world’s largest cryptocurrency climbed more than 4% to $111,889 on trading platforms like Coinbase, before easing slightly to $111,400 by publication time, according to The Block’s price page.

Altcoins rallied alongside, with the GMCI 30 Index — which tracks the top 30 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization — posting gains as well.

The price momentum has catapulted demand for global crypto options. Bitcoin options open interest (OI) reached a new all-time high above $45.8 billion, accounting for nearly 84% of the total digital asset options market, per CoinGlass data. Meanwhile, open interest in ETH options soared to over $8 billion.

Total options OI for bitcoin and ether grew to over $53.8 billion in notional value, its highest point since December 2024.

All drivers in full gear

Geoffrey Kendrick, Standard Chartered’s global head of digital assets research, said that previously reported market stimulants moved in unison to fuel BTC’s rally.

“With Bitcoin printing in a predicted all-time high, it is time to take stock and see which of our predicted drivers is working. Short answer – everything is working,” Kendrick wrote in a May 22 report shared with The Block.

Earlier this week, Kendrick reaffirmed his $500,000 BTC price target expected during President Donald Trump’s current tenure. To back the thesis, Standard Chartered’s expert highlighted quarterly 13F data from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), which showed sovereign nations and institutions increasing exposure to bitcoin via proxy assets like Strategy’s MSTR. The analyst said this trend has likely continued into the second quarter of 2025.

In addition, capital has rotated from gold funds to bitcoin products since the former’s April 22 peak. Gold exchange-traded products shed over $3.6 billion while BTC ETFs attracted over $7.5 billion in those five weeks, Kendrick noted. Hedge fund shorts rose only by $1 billion in that time, suggesting that net long positions comprised the lion’s share of BTC ETF flows.

Kendrick also said bitcoin remains closely correlated with the U.S. Treasury term premium. Mounting risks in the Treasury market, both domestic and international, are adding to bitcoin’s appeal, he argued.

“My official forecasts for Bitcoin are 120k end Q2, 200k end 2025, and 500k end 2028. All are well in hand,” he said.

Bitcoin remains correlated to US Treasury term premium | Source: Bloomberg, Standard Chartered Research

Caution amid growing euphoria

Despite the bullish sentiment, some analysts warned of potential volatility.

Dr. Kirill Kretov, senior automation expert at CoinPanel, advised caution amid rising open interest and thin market liquidity.

“Think of it like stretching a rubber band: when OI is high and liquidity is low, the market is tightly wound—small catalysts can cause big moves,” Kretov said via Telegram. “Paired with the liquidity withdrawal trend I’ve tracked since November 2024, this surge in OI suggests that we are entering a highly sensitive phase. The question is: how long can this last? In a market this thin and volatile, it could turn at any moment. All it takes is a macro headline, a regulatory comment, or a liquidity hiccup.”

Still, others are optimistic. Paul Howard, senior director at Wincent, said he expects bitcoin to trade higher in the weeks ahead.

“The more regulatory-friendly stance from the US and an increasing number of institutions that are coming into the market from both ETF and spot acquisition means we will see prices continue to move higher in the coming months, especially as the macro picture improves,” Howard told The Block. “The sense is it’s more likely a case of buy in May and go away than any significant headwinds or selling pressure.”