Analysts remain bullish on Strategy despite slower bitcoin accumulation, eye 2026 reacceleration

Strategy’s third-quarter report showed a slowdown in bitcoin accumulation as the company’s valuation premium — known as the mNAV multiple — narrowed to about 1.2x, the lowest since early 2023.

Still, analysts covering the stock said the company’s long-term model of converting investor capital into bitcoin remains intact, and they see the pause as cyclical rather than structural.

Shares of Strategy were trading near $269.66 on Friday, up over 5% on the day, as bitcoin hovered around $109,500, according to The Block’s MSTR price page.

Mizuho: Still on track for 30% bitcoin-yield goal

Mizuho Securities kept an “Outperform” rating and $586 price target, saying Strategy’s bitcoin treasury operation continues to outperform expectations despite a cooling premium. The firm noted the company now holds 640,808 BTC, equal to roughly 3.1% of total supply, and achieved a 26% year-to-date bitcoin yield, close to its full-year 30% target.

Analysts Dan Dolev and Alexander Jenkins said Strategy’s model, using market premiums and capital raises to accrete bitcoin per share, remains sustainable so long as access to capital markets persists.

Strategy continues to model bitcoin reaching about $150,000 by the end of 2025, a trajectory Mizuho notes would imply a three-year compounded growth rate of roughly 20% to 25%.

“Higher bitcoin prices and continued access to capital markets should allow Strategy to achieve positive bitcoin yield and drive further increases in its sum-of-the-parts valuation,” they wrote in a note to clients.

TD Cowen: Credit-market expansion could be a game changer

TD Cowen’s Lance Vitanza and Jonnathan Navarrete reiterated a “Buy” rating but cut their price target to $535 from $620, reflecting a slower fourth-quarter start. They said Strategy’s recent B-minus credit rating from S&P opens access to an additional $4.9 trillion pool of institutional capital, potentially tripling its funding capacity over time.

The firm also highlighted new Return-of-Capital tax treatment for Strategy’s preferred-stock dividends, which allows investors to defer taxes indefinitely as long as they hold the shares. Cowen expects this feature, along with potential overseas issuance, to boost institutional demand in 2026.

“What looked like a virtual lock three months ago now appears optimistic, but we expect a return to robust levels of activity no later than the first half of 2026,” they wrote, maintaining that bitcoin “maximalists should prefer owning Strategy over spot ETFs.”

Benchmark: Premium compression seen as an opportunity

Benchmark’s Mark Palmer maintained a “Buy” rating and $705 price target, describing the dip in Strategy’s mNAV multiple as cyclical — a reflection of bitcoin’s maturing market and easing volatility, rather than a structural shift.

He noted that, according to management, investor interest in Strategy’s perpetual preferred-stock program remains strong, with the company viewing it as a way to attract institutional capital seeking tax-advantaged exposure to bitcoin-linked yields.

Palmer added that management continues to see long-term potential to expand bitcoin holdings as market conditions and funding premiums improve.

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