‘Bear market rally’: CryptoQuant breaks down bitcoin’s recent price rebound

Bitcoin’s recent price rebound looks more like a temporary bounce than a durable recovery, as demand remains weak, according to onchain analytics firm CryptoQuant.

“Bitcoin has risen 21% since Nov. 21 in what appears to be a ‘bear market rally’,” CryptoQuant said in a Friday report. “Demand conditions have improved at the margin but remain weak.”

A bear market rally refers to a sharp price recovery that occurs within a broader downtrend and does not change the underlying bearish structure of the market. In bitcoin’s case, the rally is unfolding against a backdrop of continued demand contraction, CryptoQuant’s head of research Julio Moreno told The Block.

Bitcoin is up about 21% since Nov. 21, after previously falling around 19% and breaking below its 365-day moving average. CryptoQuant views this level as a key dividing line between bull and bear market conditions. Once bitcoin fell below it, the firm said a bear market was confirmed.

CryptoQuant noted that the current price action closely resembles what occurred in 2022, when bitcoin also rallied strongly after dropping below the 365-day moving average, only to fail near that level and then resume its decline.

Bitcoin is now approaching that same long-term average again, which currently sits near $101,000, according to CryptoQuant. However, bitcoin has not yet reclaimed that level. In past bear markets, similar failures to move back above this level were followed by renewed downside, CryptoQuant said.

“At the time, many market participants believed the bear market was over, the four-year cycle was invalidated, and a super-cycle was imminent, sentiment not unlike what we’re seeing today,” CryptoQuant wrote. “However, fundamental and technical indicators still point out that we remain in a bear market.”

Bitcoin demand conditions

Some demand indicators have shown brief improvement, particularly in the U.S. The Bitcoin Coinbase Price Premium — which tracks whether U.S. buyers are paying more than offshore markets — briefly turned positive for the second time since mid-December. CryptoQuant said this suggests short bursts of U.S. spot buying, but not sustained demand.

U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs have also paused net selling. In November, ETFs sold roughly 54,000 bitcoin over a 30-day period. Since then, selling has slowed, but CryptoQuant stressed that this stabilization does not amount to renewed accumulation. So far in early 2026, ETF inflows total about 3,800 bitcoin — roughly in line with the same period last year and well below levels typically seen during strong bull-market recoveries.

“Indeed, onchain data shows spot demand is still contracting, and US-based ETFs purchasing is still nothing extraordinary,” CryptoQuant wrote. “The apparent demand metrics indicates that Bitcoin spot demand contracted by 67K Bitcoin in the last 30-days, being in negative territory since Nov. 28, 2025.”

At the same time, bitcoin inflows to exchanges have increased following the recent rally. Transfers to exchanges have risen to a seven-day average of around 39,000 bitcoin, the highest level since late November. Historically, rising exchange inflows after relief rallies have signaled growing sell-side pressure, according to CryptoQuant.