Benchmark gives bullish outlook on Metaplanet despite stock decline

Benchmark Equity Research is maintaining its “Buy” rating on Metaplanet as the Japanese bitcoin treasury firm continues to accumulate crypto despite the recent stock downturn.

In a Wednesday research note, Benchmark Analyst Mark Palmer set a price target of 2,400 Japanese yen for Metaplanet to reach by the end of 2026. Metaplanet is trading at 542 yen as of the time of writing, while markets in Japan remain open, Yahoo Finance data shows.

After surging alongside its bitcoin holdings, Metaplanet’s stock has recently fallen almost 40%, raising concerns about the long-term viability of crypto treasury companies, especially as the broader market stagnates.

“Suggestions that bitcoin treasury strategies are unraveling, and that Metaplanet is running out of steam, are both premature and unwarranted, in our view,” wrote Palmer. “While recent short-seller attacks have pressured the Japanese company’s stock, such narratives overlook the context of its meteoric rise.”

The analyst noted that Metaplanet was Japan’s best-performing stock last year and that its shares remain up 56% year-to-date.

“That kind of outperformance does not reflect a company whose strategy has lost credibility, but rather one that is refueling amid near-term market dislocations,” Palmer said. 

The fundamental rationale behind the bitcoin treasury strategy — bitcoin’s role as a scarce, programmable reserve asset and a hedge for inflation — also remains intact, said Palmer, adding that institutional adoption of bitcoin is still deepening and broadening.

Palmer also said Metaplanet is differentiated by the ability to utilize its bitcoin holdings to generate recurring income from derivative strategies.

“As long as the long-term adoption curve of bitcoin continues to rise and capital markets remain receptive to innovative financing structures used to fund bitcoin purchases, the bitcoin treasury concept should have plenty of room to run, in our view,” the analyst said.

On Monday, Metaplanet announced the acquisition of 5,419 BTC for approximately $632.5 million at an average price of $116,700 per bitcoin, marking its largest acquisition to date. This transaction increased its total holdings to 25,555 BTC, making the company as the fifth-largest public corporate holder of bitcoin globally. The purchase came after a $1.4 billion raise from an international offering.

Benchmark also detailed Metaplanet’s establishment of a new U.S. subsidiary, Metaplanet Income Corp., based in Miami with an initial $15 million capital injection. The unit is expected to focus on bitcoin-related financial products, including derivatives, while operating separately from the core bitcoin holdings to enhance governance and transparency.

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