Bernstein raises Figure price target, names stock its 2026 ‘best idea’ with 38% potential upside

Analysts at research and brokerage firm Bernstein have raised their price target on Figure Technology Solutions (ticker: FIGR) to $72 from $54 and named the stock their 2026 “best idea,” citing faster-than-expected growth across its tokenized credit marketplace and improving operating leverage.

The new target implies roughly 38% potential upside from the stock’s closing price of $52.23 on Monday, with Bernstein reiterating its outperform rating since initiating coverage in October.

Founded by SoFi co-founder Mike Cagney, Figure has grown into one of the largest independent, non-bank home equity line of credit originators in the U.S., going public on the Nasdaq last September.

In a note to clients on Tuesday, the analysts, led by Gautam Chhugani, argued the blockchain-based lender is well-positioned amid banking sector disruption and a more defined U.S. crypto regulatory framework under the Clarity Act, a proposed U.S. crypto market structure bill. Figure replaces legacy banking ledgers with blockchain rails, they said, with tokenized equities offering longer-term upside.

Bernstein said Figure’s results have been tracking ahead of already “fairly optimistic” expectations, helped by a partner-led marketplace model and expansion into new lending categories. Total consumer loan marketplace volume reached about $2.7 billion in the fourth quarter, with Figure Connect, its tokenized credit marketplace, accounting for roughly 46% of processed credit volumes in the prior quarter.

Figure’s push into new products

Bernstein highlighted Figure’s push beyond its core HELOC business into new products such as debt-service coverage ratio loans, small business loans, and crypto-backed loans as a further catalyst. The firm also pointed to Figure’s plan to launch a tokenized equity platform by tokenizing its own shares for a proposed secondary market offering, describing equities as longer-term “optionality” rather than a near-term revenue driver.

The analysts also expect Figure’s stablecoin and funding products to scale alongside the marketplace. Its yield-bearing stablecoin, YLDS, grew from about $21 million to roughly $328 million quarter-over-quarter, following integrations with Solana, while the firm’s Democratized Prime lending marketplace expanded to around $206 million outstanding in the fourth quarter from roughly $1 million in the prior quarter, they said.

On the financials, Bernstein forecasts net revenue to rise from about $511 million in 2025 to roughly $945 million by 2027, with adjusted EBITDA margins expanding from around 50% to about 60% over the same period as Figure’s capital-light marketplace model scales. By 2027, the firm expects new loan categories to account for around 20% of origination volumes, and Figure Connect to handle roughly 60% of total loan volumes.

Bernstein said its $72 price target is based on a blended valuation of roughly 25 times 2027 EBITDA and about 40 times 2027 earnings, leaving multiples unchanged but lifting estimates to reflect stronger execution. While acknowledging risks tied to macro conditions and the pace of expansion into non-HELOC products, the firm argued that Figure is positioned to benefit from growing demand for blockchain-based credit infrastructure in 2026 and beyond.

Gautam Chhugani maintains long positions in various cryptocurrencies. Bernstein or its affiliates may receive compensation for investment banking services from Figure.

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