Bernstein signals potential bottom into Q1 earnings for Coinbase, Robinhood and Figure as crypto equities trade at steep discounts

Bernstein said crypto-linked equities are trading at “big discounts” following a broad drawdown, with valuations now reflecting weak near-term sentiment rather than long-term growth potential.

In a note to clients on Monday, analysts at the research and brokerage firm argued that stocks tied to digital asset infrastructure — including exchanges, brokerages, and tokenization platforms — are now roughly 60% below recent highs, even as their underlying businesses continue to expand across markets such as stablecoins, derivatives, prediction markets, and tokenized real-world assets.

Bernstein expects the current weakness to carry through first-quarter earnings before stabilizing. With this in mind, the analysts are pointing to a potential bottom forming into Q1 earnings.

The view extends the firm’s recent stance that parts of the crypto equity selloff — including Circle-related concerns tied to U.S. regulation — may have overshot fundamentals.

Stablecoins and derivatives anchor growth for Coinbase

Bernstein retained its outperform rating on Coinbase (COIN), but assigned a revised price target of $330, down from $440 previously.

Despite weaker first-quarter trading volumes, the analysts expect earnings growth to remain intact. They also project revenue to expand at a roughly 26% compound annual rate through 2027.

Bernstein sees stablecoins doing most of the heavy lifting, with Coinbase taking roughly half of Circle’s USDC revenue, while derivatives and newer products are beginning to add more to the mix.

The note also highlights that subscription and services revenue, including stablecoin income, provides a buffer against volatility in crypto prices, even as spot trading volumes remain cyclical.

The framing echoes Bernstein’s earlier view that Coinbase stock was “too cheap to sell,” when it previously highlighted significant upside tied to rising trading volumes and product expansion.

Prediction markets form key lever under the HOOD

Robinhood Markets (HOOD) also retains an outperform rating from Bernstein with a revised price target of $130, lowered from $160.

Bernstein still sees earnings growing about 25% in 2026, even with a softer first quarter for both equity and crypto trading.

The analysts identified prediction markets as a central growth engine, estimating the segment could account for roughly 10% of total revenue in 2026, supported by both Kalshi distribution and Robinhood’s own exchange infrastructure.

They also highlighted diversification across non-trading revenue that is less sensitive to crypto volatility, such as margin lending, subscriptions, and banking.

The firm has previously argued that “crypto jitters” weighing on Robinhood are temporary, with longer-term upside tied to expanding market structure and retail participation.

Tokenization model drives resilience for Figure

Similarly, Bernstein maintained an outperform rating on Figure Technology Solutions (FIGR) with a $67 price target, trimmed from $72.

The analysts describe Figure as a pure-play on blockchain-based tokenization, with revenue streams less directly linked to crypto price movements.

They expect loan origination volumes to reach $12.8 billion in 2026, supported by growth in home equity lines, new credit products, and the expansion of its marketplace model. Monthly originations have already surpassed $1 billion as of March, according to the report.

The firm also pointed to Figure’s broader platform — including tokenized credit, on-chain equities, and decentralized capital markets — as positioning it for long-term growth across real-world asset tokenization.

That stance aligns with Bernstein’s earlier positive coverage of the company, where it highlighted strong profitability and accelerating loan volumes as underpinning its investment case.

The broad outlook suggests a weak quarter, but a stronger setup beyond Q1. Across all three companies, Bernstein’s core argument consistently sees near-term earnings softness stemming from macro pressure and crypto market sentiment rather than structural downsides. Valuations, the analysts suggested, have reset faster than fundamentals.

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