Bitcoin outlook still clouded by ‘extreme fear’ amid macro uncertainty and profit-taking despite rally to $76K, analysts say

Bitcoin traded near $75,300 on Friday after touching an intraday high above $76,300, leaving the asset up more than 6% on the week as traders leaned back into risk.

Yet, this week’s uptrend has come with an odd contrast: sentiment remains bruised, despite an almost two-month high.

Indeed, the crypto Fear and Greed Index still still stands at 21, or “extreme fear,” even as bitcoin pressed higher and U.S. stocks extended their run to record territory, The Block’s data shows.

Mixed market

This split is becoming the story of the market despite recent higher prices.

QCP Capital called the week’s rebound “relief without reopening” — a reset in pricing rather than a clean turn in the macro backdrop.

In the firm’s view, bitcoin (BTC) and crypto have tracked the same cross-asset shift as equities and oil. They noted that data show lower tail-risk, softer dollar pressure, and steadier sentiment, but without a full clearing of inflation, energy, or policy stress.

Glassnode analysts struck a similarly careful note. In its latest weekly report, the firm said bitcoin is holding roughly 5% below the “True Market Mean” near $78,100, which it sees as the key near-term resistance level. Spot demand and ETF flows have improved, it said, but the recovery still lacks depth.

Profit-taking has also increased, while institutional participation remains selective, and options markets are still skewed toward downside protection.

Eyes on $75K

Analysts also point to uneven buying across venues.

Per Glassnode, Binance-led spot flows have recovered faster than Coinbase, suggesting offshore and retail demand is doing more of the lifting than the deeper U.S. institutional bid usually associated with stronger trend continuation.

Bitfinex analysts have gone a step further, arguing that the latest leg higher has been driven less by a broad revival in demand than by concentrated absorption tied to Strategy’s STRC preferred-share machine. Their report sais Strategy’s previous week of funding financed the purchase of 13,927 BTC at an average price near $71,902, creating a powerful supply squeeze in a thin market.

The confluence has likely made $75,000 more than a round number, experts argue.

Bitfinex says it is now the level where bitcoin has to prove it can hold up once structured buying gives way to organic spot demand. A rejection there, the firm warns, could drag the market back toward the $70,000 to $71,000 range.

Macro and onchain picture

The broader macro backdrop is still doing much of the work.

Multiple reports cited record highs for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq again this week as investors bet on progress toward ending the Iran war, while Brent remained below $100 a barrel even after staying elevated enough to keep inflation nerves alive.

On Friday, Brent traded around $98.50 and WTI around $89.10, reflecting a market that has pared worst-case energy fears without fully relaxing.

Ultimately, that tension runs through crypto too.

Kraken Chief Economist Thomas Perfumo said attention is shifting toward the Federal Reserve, especially with Kevin Warsh’s nomination hearing approaching and the June FOMC seen as a possible policy turning point for risk assets.

Meanwhile, analysts at derivatives exchange Bitunix said the market is no longer reacting to whether conflict escalates, but to whether lingering risks have already been priced in. It’s a more delicate setup for bitcoin near resistance, they added.

Nexo’s daily note captured the same contradiction: the risk rally is extending, but derivatives are not fully buying it. Funding is soft, but demand is still elevated, and positioning has stayed defensive even as institutional spot demand shows signs of recovery.

The mix helps explain why bitcoin’s rebound has looked solid in price but hesitant underneath.

The Block reported earlier this week that spot ETF demand has improved again, while CryptoQuant warned that exchange inflows point to greater profit-taking risk.

K33, by contrast, argued that a long stretch of negative funding resembles prior bottoming regimes, and Bitwise said geopolitical stress may be reinforcing bitcoin’s long-term appeal.

There is also a supply-side complication. Public miners sold more bitcoin in the first quarter than in all of 2025, according to data cited by TheEnergyMag, a sign that natural sell pressure has not disappeared even with the price back near $76,000.

For now, the market has enough support to stay constructive. ETF flows are firming, spot demand has returned, and global equities are acting as if the worst of the geopolitical shock may have passed. But the tone is still careful, not euphoric. Bitcoin is rallying into resistance, not breaking free of it, according to multiple analyst opinions reviewed by The Block.

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