Bitcoin shrugs off 80,000 BTC OG whale sale as Ethereum demand ‘explodes’ and open interest dominance nears 40%: analysts

Bitcoin is holding steady as we come toward the end of July despite the recent $9 billion OG BTC whale sale, buoyed by strong institutional accumulation, while Ethereum is seeing a surge in speculative activity, with ETF inflows accelerating and open interest dominance hitting its highest level in over two years, according to analysts.

Bitcoin remains on solid footing despite that major over-the-counter sale of 80,000 BTC, facilitated by Galaxy Digital, on July 25. The sale, first flagged by onchain analysts tracing 2011 Satoshi-era wallets, triggered a brief 4% drop for bitcoin from $119,500 to $114,500, but the foremost cryptocurrency quickly rebounded back above $118,000, K33 Head of Research Vetle Lunde noted in a Tuesday report.

Lunde attributes the market’s resilience to strong institutional demand, with Bitcoin treasury companies and exchange-traded products collectively absorbing 115,165 BTC during the month, meaning that even after subtracting the Galaxy sale, net inflows stood at 35,165 BTC, providing a buffer against the sell pressure.

Monthly change in BTC exposure. Image: K33.

While bitcoin’s price remained largely stable, leverage in the derivatives market has spiked. Perpetual futures open interest surged past 300,000 BTC — levels not seen since late 2024 — though funding rates remain neutral this time around. Lunde suggests this balance may reflect hedging activity by OTC desks like Galaxy, selling into the market while offsetting exposure via shorts. However, Lunde warned that elevated open interest does increase the risk of liquidation cascades.

BTC perp OI at highs not seen since November 2024. Image: K33.

ETH demand ‘explosion’

Meanwhile, Ethereum is increasingly capturing trader and institutional attention. Net inflows into Ethereum ETFs have soared since mid-June, with over 1.6 million ETH added in the past six weeks alone — more than doubling the prior 11-month cumulative inflow since launch. That helped ETH post a 52% monthly gain and drove a sharp rise in the ETHBTC ratio from around 0.023 to 0.032, its highest level since January, Lunde noted. 

July ETF flows totaled $5.1 billion for Ethereum, compared to $5.7 billion for Bitcoin products, despite ETH having less than one-fifth of BTC’s market cap, Lunde added.

ETH ETF notional AUM vs. cumulative notional flow. Image: K33.

Institutional activity in Ethereum futures has followed suit. According to K33 data, CME open interest from non-leveraged active players grew by 527,000 ETH in July, a sign that institutions are moving beyond hedging and taking directional long positions, Lunde said. 

CME ETH futures open interest. Image: K33.

This growing conviction is also reflected in broader market data, with Glassnode analysts reporting that Ethereum’s perpetual open interest dominance has climbed to nearly 40% — its highest level since April 2023. Historically, only 5% of days have seen a higher reading, suggesting a meaningful speculative rotation from BTC to ETH at the margin, the analysts said.

BTC vs ETH perpetual open interest dominance. Image: Glassnode.

Combined with the potential release of the White House crypto report tomorrow, Trump’s Aug. 1 tariff deadline, and key catalysts like Wednesday’s FOMC meeting and a wave of U.S. employment data, market conditions appear primed for heightened activity and volatility in the week ahead, Lunde said.

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