Bitcoin ‘trapped below’ key resistance level as ETF outflows stretch to three days amid Fed split

Bitcoin held near $76,000 on Thursday after the Federal Reserve kept rates unchanged, but analysts say the market’s attention has shifted quickly from the hold itself to the cracks underneath it.

Thomas Perfumo, Kraken’s chief economist, said the hold was the least interesting part of the meeting and that markets are instead weighing policy uncertainty tied to Jerome Powell’s continued presence on the board alongside Kevin Warsh’s expected leadership.

“The absence of a clean handoff to Warsh, who is nearing Senate confirmation as Chair, suggests the potential for discord over policy at the Fed,” Perfumo stated. “With markets now pricing a nearly 90% chance of rates holding flat through year-end, they may be weighing Powell’s continued presence at the Fed over Warsh’s appointment, a net negative dynamic for assets like crypto and growth equities.”

The Block’s price page shows bitcoin was trading at about $76,100 shortly before the U.S. market open, after touching an intraday high of $77,583 and a low of $75,014.

It means bitcoin (BTC) is still boxed in below the $78,000-$79,000 ceiling that Glassnode has flagged as the key resistance zone. In its latest report, the analysts at the firm said bitcoin remains “trapped below” the True Market Mean, with support clustered between $65,000 and $70,000, spot selling pressure easing, and institutional flows beginning to stabilize.

Yet, demand is too weak for a sustained break higher, they said.

Post-Fed macro scene

The macro backdrop did not help either.

Alvin Kan, chief operating officer at Bitget Wallet, said bitcoin’s failure to hold momentum above the $77,000-$78,000 area reflects a market trying to balance structural support from institutional demand against macro caution.

Previously, bitcoin had slipped after the Fed held rates steady and delivered the deepest split among central bank officials in decades. That split is now a key trading signal across desks.

Bitunix analyst Chen Dean said the market is no longer focused on “no rate cut,” but on the Fed losing internal consensus over inflation itself. In his view, the real repricing risk is whether repeated energy and supply shocks force policymakers to treat higher-for-longer as a structural reality rather than a temporary stance.

Similarly, Matt Mena, senior crypto research strategist at 21Shares, said the hold was no surprise, but the hawkish dissenters “threw a bucket of ice on the market’s pivot party.”

Jake Kennis, a research analyst at Nansen, took a similar line. Kennis noted that the Fed’s higher-for-longer signal has kept bitcoin stuck below $78,000 and pushed crypto into a waiting game shaped by restrictive policy and energy risk.

Institutional limbo

Flows have turned alongside that shift in tone.

After snapping a nine-day inflow streak earlier this week, U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs posted a third consecutive day of net outflows on April 29.

SoSoValue data showed $138 million in total net outflows, even as Morgan Stanley’s MSBT logged the largest single-day inflow among the products at $10.8 million. Spot ether ETFs lost another $87.7 million, led by Fidelity’s FETH.

The weakening in ETF demand also fits a more careful tone showing up elsewhere in the market.

According to Glassnode, ETF assets under management and CME open interest are stabilizing after earlier outflows. They said it points to tentative institutional re-entry, but notably, not full conviction.

Analysts also flagged another important wrinkle: the perpetual futures market has flipped to its deepest net short bias on record, leaving room for squeezes if sentiment improves or spot demand firms up.

At the same time, implied and realized volatility have both drifted lower, and analysts said this reinforces a calmer yet indecisive, range-bound setup.

So, bitcoin is holding up, but only just, per multiple analysts’ insights reviewed by The Block.

The sell pressure is lighter, shorts are crowded, and support is better defined than it was a few weeks ago. Yet three straight days of ETF outflows, a fractured Fed, and sticky macro risk are keeping the market pinned under the same ceiling.

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