Bitcoin’s next move is increasingly tied to oil, yields and Fed policy as ETF flows guide market direction, analysts say

Bitcoin’s next major move may depend less on crypto-specific developments and more on the trajectory of oil prices, bond yields, and Federal Reserve policy, according to analysts at Bitfinex.

Experts point to a shifting market structure in which macro liquidity conditions increasingly drive price action as leverage across derivatives markets has fallen sharply.

Bitcoin recently traded just below $72,000, up more than 4% over the past 24 hours, according to The Block’s price page, while more than $100 million in short positions were liquidated during the rally, data from CoinGlass shows.

However, analysts say the recent rebound has done little to change the broader picture: a market that is stabilizing after months of deleveraging but remains constrained by macro forces.

“Bitcoin is transitioning from a leverage-driven correction to a macro-driven consolidation phase,” the Bitfinex analysts wrote in a note. “Liquidity expectations become more important in the absence of large derivatives market participation.”

Oil’s impact

February’s liquidation event, where bitcoin fell as low as $60,000 from around $79,000, dramatically reduced leverage across the crypto ecosystem. Open interest in derivatives markets dropped significantly, leaving the market structurally cleaner but more sensitive to macro liquidity conditions, according to Bitfinex.

In that environment, developments in energy markets have taken on outsized importance.

Crude oil has surged roughly 80% from trough to peak over the past three weeks, briefly pushing above $100 per barrel amid escalating geopolitical tensions tied to the Iran-Israel conflict.

According to the Bitfinex analysts, the implications extend well beyond energy markets as well.

“Periods of rising oil prices have historically coincided with higher U.S. real yields and a stronger dollar, both of which tighten global liquidity and can cap near-term upside in risk assets,” the analysts said.

Energy costs also feed directly into inflation expectations. With energy accounting for roughly 9% of consumer price index baskets in developed economies, sustained oil strength can delay expectations for interest-rate cuts, keeping financial conditions tight.

This dynamic has become increasingly relevant for bitcoin, which analysts say now trades more like a technology stock than a traditional safe-haven asset. “In recent months, bitcoin has proven to be increasingly correlated to technology stocks rather than safe-haven assets like gold,” the Bitfinex analysts noted, adding that the cryptocurrency’s performance is now closely tied to the broader macro liquidity cycle.

Early stabilization signs

Despite those pressures, the market has shown signs of stabilization.

Spot bitcoin ETFs recorded $167 million in net inflows on March 9, according to data from SoSoValue, led by BlackRock’s IBIT, which saw roughly $109 million in new capital.

Analysts say those flows remain one of the clearest indicators of institutional sentiment. “In the absence of a pivot in ETF flows, prices are likely to remain between $63,000 and $72,000 in the coming weeks,” the Bitfinex analysts wrote.

Market structure indicators also suggest a balance forming between buyers and sellers. Bitfinex noted that continued accumulation by large holders appears to be absorbing retail selling pressure, creating an equilibrium in the market.

Technical levels reinforce the consolidation narrative. Analysts identify $60,000 as structural support, $70,000 to $72,000 as a near-term supply zone, and $78,000 as a major onchain cost-basis resistance level separating consolidation from a renewed bull phase.

However, broader macro developments may ultimately determine which direction bitcoin breaks next. Stephen Coltman, head of macro at 21Shares, warned that rising energy prices could amplify inflation risks at a time when U.S. consumers already face mounting financial pressure.

The U.S. savings rate has fallen to 3.6%, well below the long-term average near 6%, leaving households with limited buffers against higher energy and food costs, he said. “If the savings rate were to rise back toward historical norms while spending shifts toward essentials, the U.S. economy could be dangerously close to stall speed,” Coltman wrote in a recent analysis.

For bitcoin, the result is a market caught between two forces: stabilizing crypto fundamentals and an increasingly uncertain macro backdrop. If ETF inflows hold and macro conditions remain neutral, Bitfinex analysts say bitcoin could gradually grind higher toward the low-$70,000 range. But if oil-driven inflation pushes yields higher again, the market could revisit the $60,000 support zone before any sustained rally emerges.

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