BTC price looks ‘strong’ ahead of key Strategic Bitcoin Reserve deadline, analysts say

Bitcoin’s consolidation at around the $95,000 mark is looking “strong” following a 9% gain during the past week and ahead of the U.S. Treasury’s upcoming evaluation deadline for President Trump’s proposed Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, according to K33 analysts.

Trump signed an executive order on March 6 to create a U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, established from the approximate 200,000 BTC ($19 billion) already owned by the federal government that was forfeited as part of criminal or civil proceedings, minus those that still need to be returned to victims of crime.

Additionally, Trump directed Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick to develop budget-neutral strategies for acquiring additional bitcoin, provided they have no incremental costs to American taxpayers.

Federal agencies were scheduled to submit reports by April 5 outlining their authority to transfer digital assets to the reserve. However, details on budget-neutral acquisition strategies aren’t expected until closer to 60 days after the executive order, around May 5, when Bessent is due to deliver an evaluation of the legal and investment considerations for the reserve.

“Official communication ahead of this deadline has been very limited, with little discussion of the matter among the public. However, we expect this to change as the date approaches,” K33 Head of Research Vetle Lunde and Senior Analyst David Zimmerman noted in a Tuesday report.

“We are not aware of any concrete details on budget-neutral acquisition methods,” the analysts added. “Further, per our knowledge, no public announcement on the progress of the SBR is currently scheduled. Nonetheless, given the rapidly approaching deadline, we expect discussions on the matter to progress into public discourse shortly, which could further solidify the promising momentum in BTC of late.”

Strategy’s $21 billion equity program nearly depleted

Lunde and Zimmerman also speculated that Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) may reveal a new at-the-market offering following its Q1 earnings results on Thursday, fueling additional bitcoin purchases and further bolstering the cryptocurrency’s recent price strength alongside new corporate accumulation race entrants like the SoftBank and Tether-backed Twenty One.

Strategy’s $21 billion equity program, announced in October last year alongside $21 billion in fixed-income securities offerings, is nearly depleted after the firm disclosed acquiring an additional 15,355 BTC for approximately $1.42 billion on Monday, bringing its total holdings to 553,555 BTC — worth over $52 billion.

The latest acquisitions used proceeds from the sale of its class A common stock, MSTR, and perpetual strike preferred stock, STRK. Strategy sold 4,020,000 MSTR shares for approximately $1.4 billion last week and 435,069 STRK shares for $37.5 million. As of April 27, just $128.7 million worth of MSTR shares now remain available for issuance and sale under its common ATM program — far ahead of the original three-year plan, the K33 analysts noted.

“Despite the rapid pace, MSTR still trades at a 1.93x premium to NAV,” they said. “With limited funds left [and its other sources of funding moving slower], softer Strategy purchases may follow. However, we believe there is a moderately high likelihood of a new ATM announcement during Strategy’s May 1 earnings call.”

Negative weekly funding rates on Binance’s largest bitcoin derivative, BTCUSDT, for the first time since September also support a potential bitcoin rally, the analysts noted. “Sustained negative funding is rare, with only four occurrences since January 2023, typically during high uncertainty,” they said. “Current rates have remained sub-neutral for 97 consecutive trading days, the longest such streak since the 2022 bear market. Historically, these environments have preceded strong rallies, particularly post-January 2023.”