Shares of Circle (CRCL) briefly climbed above $90 on Thursday, marking their highest level since mid-November, as analysts at Bernstein and Mizuho weighed in following the company’s fourth-quarter beat.
The stock has since settled to around $87, extending gains from Wednesday’s roughly 30% post-earnings surge.
In a note published Thursday, Bernstein reiterated its “outperform” rating and $190 price target, calling the quarter a “clear divergence from crypto” as Circle’s revenue and adjusted EBITDA both exceeded expectations.
Bernstein pointed to stronger transaction revenue, including blockchain rewards tied to Circle’s role as a super validator on the Canton network and a growing share of USDC held directly on Circle’s own platform, which rose to 17% of total supply in the fourth quarter, up from 14% in the third quarter. Circle expects USDC in circulation to continue compounding at 40% annually and sees other revenue expanding to as much as $170 million in 2026, up from $110 million in 2025.
While Bernstein focused on margin durability and product expansion, including Arc, Circle Payments Network, and new “agentic payments” capabilities, Mizuho struck a more measured tone.
Polymarket boost and agentic commerce
Mizuho analysts Dan Dolev and Alexander Jenkins raised their price target to $90 from $77 but maintained a”neutral” rating.
The firm said sentiment has improved in part due to growing activity on prediction markets such as Polymarket, which management cited as a meaningful contributor to recent USDC growth. Mizuho described prediction markets as a “visible, scaled USDC use case,” generating high-velocity transaction flows that support both transaction revenue and reserve balances.
The note also framed “agentic AI” as a longer-term call option on USDC demand, arguing that autonomous software agents could eventually require internet-native money, though current volumes appear small and experimental.
Still, Mizuho warned that looming interest-rate cuts remain a potential headwind, given that reserve income still drives the vast majority of Circle’s revenue.
© 2026 The Block. All Rights Reserved. This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.
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