Bitcoin holders have begun realizing net losses for the first time since October 2023, marking a notable shift in onchain profit dynamics after more than a year of sustained realized gains, according to CryptoQuant.
“This marks a regime change from profit-taking to loss realization over the past 30 days,” the onchain analytics firm said in a Thursday report. “Realized profit momentum has declined steadily since early 2024, forming successive lower peaks in January 2024, December 2024, July 2025, and October 2025. This pattern signals weakening price strength, even as spot prices previously remained elevated.”
Since Dec. 23, 2025, bitcoin holders have realized cumulative losses totaling the equivalent of as much as 69,000 BTC, CryptoQuant said. The firm added that realized profit peaks have been declining since March 2024, an indication that prices are losing momentum “as the bull market ends.”
When asked how CryptoQuant tracks realized profit and loss, the firm’s head of research, Julio Moreno, told The Block that the methodology relies on onchain transfer data combined with market pricing.
“When bitcoin is spent/transfer we compare the price at which it was transferred to the price at the previous transfer, and then calculate the profit/loss using those prices and the amount of bitcoin being transferred,” Moreno said. “Transfers are all visible onchain and prices come from exchanges.”
‘Closely mirrors the 2021–2022 bull-to-bear transition’
CryptoQuant said the shift from net realized profits to net realized losses closely resembles the 2021–2022 bull-to-bear transition, when realized losses began to dominate onchain activity. During that period, realized profits peaked in January 2021, formed lower highs throughout the year, and then flipped into net losses ahead of the 2022 bear market, the firm noted.
Annual net realized profits are also trending lower again, reaching levels similar to March 2022 — the early stages of the last bear market — according to CryptoQuant. Current net realized profits stand at 2.5 million BTC, down from 4.4 million BTC in October and the lowest level since March 2024. Net realized losses, meanwhile, are tracking similar levels and patterns to March 2022, when the bear market was already underway, the firm said.
“Declining net realized profits indicate a loss of strength in the price of bitcoin,” CryptoQuant concluded.
The firm has been signaling an emerging bear market for several weeks. Last week, CryptoQuant said bitcoin’s recent price rebound looked more like a temporary bounce than a durable recovery, describing it as a “bear market rally.”
Bitcoin is currently trading at around $89,760, nearly flat over the past 24 hours, according to The Block’s BTC price page.
© 2026 The Block. All Rights Reserved. This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.
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