Shares of Gemini Space Station (GEMI) remain near all-time lows, but Mizuho analysts argue much of the recent turmoil may already be priced in.
In a Wednesday note, Dan Dolev and Alexander Jenkins reiterated their “outperform” rating and $26 price target, writing that while the departure of Gemini’s COO, CFO, and CLO is “disappointing,” the stock “likely already reflects a lot of this pain.”
Gemini is trading at around $5.90 on Thursday, according to The Block price data, down a massive 43% in just the past 30 days alone and well below Mizuho’s base-case valuation.
Revenue slightly ahead, losses wider
Gemini’s preliminary revenue range of $165 million to $175 million came in slightly above Mizuho’s $168 million midpoint estimate. Adjusted EBITDA was weaker than expected, however, at roughly negative $257 million to negative $267 million versus the firm’s prior forecast of about negative $224 million.
Still, the analysts argue recently announced cost reductions, including a roughly 25% workforce cut and exits from the UK, EU, and Australia, should help “drive a path to profitability over time.”
They also described Gemini as a “crypto-heavy app,” suggesting some of the weakness reflects broader pressure across digital-asset markets rather than company-specific factors alone.
Valuation unchanged
Mizuho continues to value Gemini at 7x estimated 2027 revenue, a discount to the 10x peer group median, supporting its unchanged $26 price target.
In a more optimistic scenario that includes stronger monthly transacting user growth and faster margin recovery, the firm sees shares trading closer to peer multiples, implying a $43 bull-case target. From current levels, that would represent gains of more than 600%.
By contrast, Mizuho’s bear case assumes slower user growth and a tougher operating backdrop, implying an $8 target — a 35% jump from where the stock trades today.
© 2026 The Block. All Rights Reserved. This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.
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