Goldman upgrades Coinbase stock to Buy, flags execution risks and growing competition

Goldman Sachs upgraded Coinbase (ticker COIN) to a Buy rating from Neutral in a sector-wide 2026 outlook note, arguing that recent product launches and a growing mix of infrastructure revenue have improved the exchange’s longer-term growth profile, even as near-term margins face pressure from competition and interest-rate sensitivity.

The bank set a $303 price target, implying roughly 34% upside from recent lows of around $225, but stressed that its constructive view is selective rather than bullish on the sector as a whole. 

“We remain selectively constructive on the group,” Goldman analysts wrote, citing intensifying competition and rate sensitivity as factors likely to keep adjusted EBITDA margins flat in 2026.

Coinbase shares moved closer to that target on Monday, rising about 7.5% as bitcoin climbed back above $94,000, according to The Block price data.

Coinbase (COIN) stock price chart. Source: The Block/TradingView

Goldman expects Coinbase to benefit from a shift toward what it characterizes as “structural” crypto businesses, including custody, staking, and subscription services, which it estimates now account for roughly 40% of revenue, up from less than 5% five years ago.

Those lines are seen as less volatile than spot trading and better positioned if crypto adoption expands further into the mainstream financial world. 

New product verticals

The upgrade also reflects Coinbase’s push into new trading products unveiled in December, including U.S. equities, prediction markets, derivatives, and expanded banking services.

Goldman sees prediction markets and tokenization as potentially large addressable markets over time, but emphasized that scale and liquidity will be critical for monetization, an advantage it believes favors platforms with large existing user bases like Coinbase.

Still, the note is cautious on profitability in the near term. Goldman expects margin pressure to persist as traditional brokers add crypto offerings while crypto-native firms push further into stocks, banking, and payments, raising customer acquisition costs across the sector.

The bank also flagged regulatory risk, noting that much of its longer-term upside case depends on Congress passing a U.S. crypto market structure bill.

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