Gold’s surge above $5,000 and Clarity Act limbo frame contrasting futures for crypto markets, Bitwise CIO says

Gold’s rapid ascent and uncertainty around U.S. crypto legislation are emerging as two defining forces for digital asset markets, according to Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan.

In a note to clients late Monday, Hougan said the combination of surging demand for non-sovereign stores of value and unresolved regulatory clarity could shape both crypto adoption and near-term price dynamics.

Gold has rallied sharply in recent months, rising 65% in 2025 and another 16% so far in 2026 to trade above $5,000 per troy ounce for the first time. Hougan noted that roughly half of gold’s dollar-denominated value has been created in just the past 20 months, despite the precious metal’s more than 2,000-year history as a form of money. He argued the move reflects the cumulative impact of years of money printing, debt, and currency debasement.

“It shows that people no longer want to keep all of their wealth in a format that relies on the good graces of others,” Hougan wrote.

Trust erosion and regulatory crossroads

Hougan linked the gold rally to a deeper, accelerating breakdown in institutional trust, driven in part by geopolitical events. Central banks doubled their annual gold purchases after the U.S. seized Russia’s treasury assets in 2022 following the invasion of Ukraine, he said, prompting governments to seek reserves not subject to external control. More recently, German economists called for repatriating gold stored at the New York Federal Reserve, while a Norwegian government panel warned that sovereign wealth could face increased taxation, regulatory intervention, or confiscation.

Against that backdrop, Hougan argued crypto’s core attributes are becoming increasingly more tangible, despite the current diverging price action. Assets like bitcoin allow ownership without reliance on centralized institutions, while networks such as Ethereum and Solana operate under rules that no single actor can change. Concepts often framed as buzzwords, including self-custody, censorship resistance, and trustless systems, may gain relevance as confidence in traditional intermediaries weakens, he said.

At the same time, Hougan pointed to rising uncertainty around the Clarity Act, legislation intended to codify the current pro-crypto regulatory environment in the U.S. Earlier this year, prediction markets placed the odds of passage near 80%, but those estimates have fallen closer to 50% after recent setbacks, including Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong calling the current version of the bill unworkable.

If the legislation fails, Hougan said crypto could enter a three-year “show me” period in which real-world adoption becomes decisive. In that scenario, widespread use of stablecoins and tokenized stocks could eventually force favorable regulation, similar to how companies like Uber and Airbnb pushed lawmakers to adapt. Without such progress, however, a future shift in Washington could pose a significant setback, he warned.

Hougan stated that the outcome has significant implications for market behavior. Passage of a version of the Clarity Act acceptable to the industry could trigger a sharp rally as investors price in assured growth for stablecoins and tokenization. Failure, by contrast, would likely produce a slower, “wait and see” market in which prices depend on demonstrated adoption rather than expectations, he added.

While Hougan said he remains optimistic that the bill will pass, he cautioned that the alternative would mean preparing for a more gradual ascent. In his view, crypto now stands at an inflection point, with either regulatory certainty or real-world utility set to determine the market’s next phase.

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