Iran war oil shock more likely to affect Bitcoin miners through BTC price than energy costs, analysts say

Bitcoin miners may feel the effects of oil shocks linked to the war in Iran primarily through bitcoin’s price volatility rather than their energy bills, according to new analysis from Luxor Technology’s Hashrate Index.

The research examined how a geopolitical shock affecting global energy markets could influence mining economics after coordinated strikes by the United States and Israel on Iranian targets disrupted tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.

Roughly 20% of the world’s oil supply normally flows through the strait. Following the disruption, Brent crude surged from about $60 per barrel to more than $100 before easing to around $90, with decentralized derivatives markets like Hyperliquid increasingly used to trade the asset outside of traditional hours.

According to data from the Cambridge Centre for Alternative Finance and the Bitcoin Mining Council, more than half of the Bitcoin network runs on non-fossil energy sources, while crude oil as a direct fuel for mining is “essentially a rounding error,” the Hashrate Index analysts said. The more relevant question, they argued, is whether oil price shocks transmit into electricity prices in countries where mining is concentrated.

Hashrate Index data suggests that the link is limited, estimating that roughly 90% of global hashrate operates in electricity markets where power prices have minimal correlation with crude oil. The United States, Russia, and China account for the largest shares of global hashrate, followed by Paraguay, the United Arab Emirates, Oman, Canada, Ethiopia, and Kazakhstan. Many of these markets rely primarily on natural gas, coal, or hydroelectric power rather than oil, limiting the direct impact of crude price swings on mining costs, the analysts said.

According to the research, only a small portion of the network runs in power markets closely tied to crude. The Gulf states, including the United Arab Emirates and Oman, account for about 6% of global hashrate in electricity systems where pricing tracks oil more directly. Including additional exposure from Iran, Kuwait, Qatar, and Libya brings the total crude-sensitive share of the network to roughly 8% to 10%, per Hashrate Index.

Bitcoin price drives miner profitability

Because the majority of mining operations run on grids powered by natural gas, coal, hydro, or geothermal energy, the analysis suggests oil price shocks would directly affect only a narrow portion of the network’s operating costs. Even where some relationship exists, the correlation between crude prices and U.S. industrial electricity rates is relatively weak and typically passes through slowly due to utility rate-setting cycles, the analysts said.

Instead, the research argues that macroeconomic consequences of geopolitical shocks pose a larger risk to miners. Higher oil prices can increase inflation expectations and influence interest rate outlooks, potentially pushing investors toward lower-risk assets and away from volatile assets such as bitcoin (BTC). That dynamic can affect mining profitability by compressing the metric known as hashprice, which measures revenue earned per unit of computing power.

Hashrate Index data shows that the dynamic already played out earlier this year. Hashprice fell to an all-time low of $27.89 per PH/s/day in February after bitcoin declined 23.8% from around $78,000 to $65,000. Over the past year, miners who hedged their revenue through rolling USD-denominated hashrate forward contracts outperformed spot mining by as much as 8.2%, according to the analysis.

The findings suggest that while geopolitical events that push oil prices above $100 can ripple through global markets, the primary risk for bitcoin miners lies on the revenue side rather than the cost side — namely, whether bitcoin’s price holds up amid broader macroeconomic uncertainty.

Meanwhile, other analysts also noted that crypto markets remain sensitive to macro developments linked to the conflict.

Wenny Cai, chief operating officer at SynFutures, told The Block that geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have briefly strengthened the U.S. dollar, creating a short-term macro headwind for risk assets. However, she added that global liquidity conditions and a prolonged easing cycle from the Federal Reserve continue to support institutional demand for digital assets, with bitcoin showing relative strength above $71,000 amid recent exchange-traded fund inflows and tightening exchange supply.

Analysts at Bitunix said bitcoin’s near-term structure remains range-bound, with resistance in the $72,000 to $73,500 range and support around $69,000 as traders watch geopolitical developments for directional signals.

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