IREN’s AI-cloud expansion driving long-term upside but near-term strain on balance sheet: JPMorgan

JPMorgan analysts said IREN’s $9.7 billion Microsoft contract marks a major step in its shift from bitcoin mining to AI infrastructure, and projected that its rapid buildout could put pressure on the balance sheet over the next year.

In a note to clients on Thursday, the bank raised its December 2026 price target to $28 from $24, citing momentum in IREN’s AI-cloud business and the validation of new hyperscale partnerships. Still, analysts noted that the company faces heavy funding needs and potential dilution as it scales its GPU fleet and data center footprint.

JPMorgan estimates IREN will need to add about 120,000 GPUs and bring 320 megawatts of new capacity online in the next 13 months. It’s a build expected to cost more than $9 billion even after Microsoft’s upfront payment.

The bank’s model also assumes roughly 374 million diluted shares following recent equity issuance and convertible note conversions.

IREN reported fiscal first-quarter revenue of $240.3 million and adjusted EBITDA of $92 million, its fifth consecutive quarter of record sales.

On its earnings call, executives said the Microsoft deal will add roughly $1.94 billion in annual recurring revenue once fully ramped, with project-level margins near 85%.

The company aims to reach 140,000 GPUs by the end of 2026, supporting about $3.4 billion in annualized run-rate revenue.

JPMorgan said those plans could drive strong long-term returns but come with execution risk as IREN transitions into a large-scale AI-cloud operator.

Shares of IREN traded below $60 on Friday morning, down about 20% from their record above $76 earlier in the week following the earnings release, according to The Block’s price page.

Despite the pullback, the stock remains well above JPMorgan’s $28 December 2026 price target, which assumes gradual delivery of its AI-cloud projects and continued capital raises.