JPMorgan says bitcoin likely to have more upside than gold in H2 2025

The debasement trade — where investors buy gold and bitcoin to hedge against weakening fiat currencies — lifted both assets late last year. But in 2025, that trade has stalled and turned into a zero-sum game, with one asset rising at the expense of the other, according to JPMorgan analysts.

“Between mid-February and mid-April gold was rising at the expense of bitcoin, while of the past three weeks we have been observing the opposite, i.e. bitcoin rising at the expense of gold,” JPMorgan analysts led by managing director Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou wrote in a report shared with The Block on Wednesday. “In all, we expect the YTD zero sum game between gold and bitcoin to extend to the remainder of the year, but are biased towards crypto-specific catalysts creating more upside for bitcoin over gold into the second half of the year.”

Since peaking on April 22, gold has dropped nearly 8%, while bitcoin is up 18% over the same period. The analysts say this shift is also visible in investor flows, with money moving out of gold exchange-traded funds and into spot bitcoin and crypto funds over the past three weeks. Futures data shows a similar trend — gold positions have declined, while bitcoin futures have risen. Earlier this year, the pattern was reversed: gold was gaining while bitcoin lagged alongside other risk assets.

The analysts say bitcoin’s recent outperformance isn’t only due to gold weakening — it’s also being driven by crypto-specific catalysts. Companies like Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) and Metaplanet are buying more bitcoin. Strategy, for example, plans to raise an additional $42 billion for bitcoin purchases by 2027 and has already met 60% of its original $42 billion goal.

Some U.S. states are also starting to add bitcoin to their reserves. New Hampshire now allows up to 5% of state assets to be invested in bitcoin and gold. Arizona is setting up a digital asset reserve funded through staking rewards and airdrops, while also vows to not increase taxes. “As the list grows, with other U.S. states potentially considering adding bitcoin to their strategic reserves, this could turn out to be a more sustained positive catalyst for bitcoin,” the analysts wrote.

The crypto derivatives market is maturing as well. U.S. exchanges have acquired major platforms — Coinbase has bought Deribit, Kraken has acquired NinjaTrader, and Gemini has obtained a license to offer derivatives across Europe. These developments, the analysts say, could encourage more institutional participation in the crypto space as regulation brings added confidence.

Overall, due to softening gold prices and these crypto-specific drivers, the JPMorgan analysts see more upside for bitcoin in the second half of the year.

Bitcoin is currently trading at around $102,500, down 1.6% in the past 24 hours, according to The Block’s bitcoin price page.