JPMorgan says bitcoin shows safe-haven-like demand during Iran war as gold and silver weaken

Bitcoin has held up better than gold and silver during the Iran war, with signs of inflows and rising activity, while precious metals have seen sharp outflows and position unwinds, JPMorgan analysts said.

Gold has fallen about 15% month-to-date, as rising interest rates and a stronger U.S. dollar weighed on “previously crowded positions,” JPMorgan analysts led by managing director Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou said in a Wednesday report. Both gold and silver had rallied to record highs earlier this year — near $5,500 for gold and $120 for silver — leaving them vulnerable to profit-taking and position liquidation once market conditions shifted, the analysts noted.

Gold exchange-traded funds saw nearly $11 billion in outflows over the first three weeks of March, while silver ETF flows have reversed all of the inflows built up since last summer, the analysts said. In contrast, bitcoin (BTC) has seen net inflows over the same period, pointing to relative strength compared with traditional safe-haven assets.

Bitcoin momentum signals recovering

Crypto activity surged in Iran following the outbreak of the war, as citizens moved funds from local exchanges to self-custody wallets and international platforms, the analysts said, citing Chainalysis data. Bitcoin’s borderless nature, ability to be held in self-custody, and 24/7 trading availability made it a preferred vehicle for capital movement during periods of economic instability, currency pressure, and capital controls, the analysts noted.

Institutional positioning also shows a shift. JPMorgan’s proxy for institutional futures positioning — based on changes in CME open interest — showed a build-up in gold and silver positions through late last year and early 2026, followed by a sharp decline since January, indicating profit-taking by institutional investors. Bitcoin futures positioning, by contrast, has remained relatively stable in recent weeks.

Momentum-driven traders appear to have amplified the move. Positioning signals tied to momentum strategies, such as commodity trading advisors, show gold and silver swinging from “overbought levels to below neutral,” suggesting forced liquidations played a role in the recent price declines, according to the analysts. Bitcoin momentum signals, meanwhile, have been recovering from “oversold levels towards neutral,” indicating improving sentiment.

Liquidity conditions have also shifted across assets. Gold has historically shown stronger market liquidity than both silver and bitcoin, as measured by the Hui-Heubel ratio, a metric that tracks market breadth and liquidity, the analysts said. However, that dynamic has recently reversed. Gold’s liquidity conditions have deteriorated, with bitcoin now showing better market breadth, while silver has seen an even sharper decline in liquidity, which may have worsened its price moves, according to the analysts.

“In all, silver ETF flows have unwound all of the previous inflows seen since last summer. The deterioration in liquidity conditions in gold has seen its market breadth decline below that of bitcoin currently,” the analysts concluded. “Crypto activity reportedly surged in Iran, highlighting the important role cryptocurrencies play as a safe haven for the citizens of countries that suffer from economic and currency instability as well as geopolitical stress.”