JPMorgan says Solana ETFs could see low inflows of around $1.5 billion in first year

Spot Solana exchange-traded funds are likely to be approved soon but will attract far lower inflows than spot Bitcoin or Ethereum ETFs, according to JPMorgan analysts.

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission is expected to decide on nearly 16 spot crypto ETF applications this month, including those tied to Solana and XRP. The SEC recently simplified the process by introducing generic listing standards, removing the need for token-specific filings — a change that has led to a surge in new crypto ETF proposals. The final deadline for spot Solana ETFs is Oct. 10, and approval is widely anticipated.

“The strong likelihood of approval for Solana spot ETFs is reinforced by the fact that there is an already established futures contract at CME,” JPMorgan analysts led by managing director Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou said in a report on Wednesday. They added that the first Solana spot ETF was already approved and launched by REX Osprey in July, registered under the Investment Company Act of 1940 — unlike other spot ETF filings, which fall under the Securities Acts of 1933 and 1934.

The analysts also noted that optimism around ETF approval has already been reflected in the Grayscale Solana Trust (GSOL) premium to net asset value, which has fallen from over 750% last year to just above zero currently. The narrowing mirrors the pattern seen in Grayscale’s Bitcoin and Ethereum trusts before their conversions into spot ETFs, they said.

JPMorgan says Solana ETFs are less likely to gain significant inflows

While the chances of Solana ETF approval are high, the analysts expect investor demand to be limited. They estimate around $1.5 billion in net inflows during the first year — about one-seventh the level seen by Ethereum ETFs in their first year.

That estimate is based on early flows into the REX Osprey Solana ETF, which has attracted nearly $350 million since launch, compared with $2.3 billion in inflows to spot ether ETFs (excluding Grayscale) during their first three months.

“A similar ratio emerges if one looks at the relative size of Solana’s DeFi TVL to that of Ethereum,” the analysts wrote. “Applying this 1/7th ratio to Ethereum’s first year net inflows of $9.6 billion suggests that Solana ETFs could potentially see around $1.5 billion of net inflows during their first year.”

The analysts cautioned, however, that Solana ETF inflows could fall short of even those projections. They cited weaker investor perception of Solana compared to Ethereum as the main DeFi/smart contract cryptocurrency, declining onchain activity such as falling active addresses since November 2024, and the dominance of memecoin trading on the Solana network. Additional factors include potential “investor fatigue” from multiple potential spot ETF launches, growing competition from diversified crypto index funds, corporate treasury products offering yield, and muted demand in CME Solana futures.

Notably, this latest forecast contrasts with earlier projections from another JPMorgan analyst team led by Kenneth B. Worthington, who estimated earlier this year that Solana ETFs could draw between $2.7 billion and $5.2 billion in net flows within six to 12 months if approved.

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