JPMorgan says Strategy could face billions in outflows if MSCI and other major indices remove it

Michael Saylor’s Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) could see billions of dollars leave its stock if MSCI removes it from major equity indices, according to JPMorgan analysts.

The analysts, led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, noted in a Wednesday report that Strategy’s share price has fallen more than bitcoin in recent months as its valuation premium — viewed by some investors as “unjustified” — has sharply compressed. But they noted the more recent slide likely reflects growing concern that the company may be dropped from key benchmark indices.

Strategy is currently included in major indices such as the Nasdaq-100, MSCI USA, and MSCI World. The JPMorgan analysts estimate that roughly $9 billion of its $50 billion market value sits in passive funds that track these indices.

That index inclusion has effectively allowed bitcoin exposure to seep into both retail and institutional portfolios via passive investment vehicles. A removal would reverse that flow, the analysts warned.

“If MicroStrategy is excluded from these indices, it could face considerable pressure to its valuation given that passive index-tracking funds represent a substantial share of its ownership,” the analysts wrote. “Outflows could amount to $2.8 billion if MicroStrategy gets excluded from MSCI indices and $8.8 billion from all other equity indices if other index providers choose to follow MSCI.”

Active managers are not required to mirror index changes, but the analysts said any removal would still be seen as a negative signal, raising doubts about Strategy’s ability to raise equity or debt in the future. A delisting from major index benchmarks could also reduce trading volumes and liquidity, making the stock less attractive to large investors, the analysts said.

They noted that Strategy’s ratio of its total market value — including debt, preferreds, and equity — to the market value of its bitcoin holdings has already fallen to its lowest level since the pandemic. An unfavorable MSCI decision would push that ratio “even closer to 1,” effectively valuing the company almost entirely as a bitcoin holding vehicle.

MSCI is scheduled to make its decision on Jan. 15, 2026 — a date the analysts described as “pivotal” for the stock.

Late last month, MSCI said it is consulting on a proposal to exclude companies whose primary activity is bitcoin or other digital asset treasury management if those holdings represent 50% or more of total assets. Any changes would take effect as part of the February 2026 index review. The consultation runs through Dec. 31, with results due Jan. 15.