Bitcoin could climb to $165,000 by year-end, according to JPMorgan analysts, who say the world’s first and largest cryptocurrency is undervalued relative to gold on a volatility-adjusted basis.
The bitcoin-to-gold volatility ratio has fallen below 2.0, meaning bitcoin now consumes about 1.85 times more risk capital than gold, the JPMorgan analysts led by managing director Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou said in a Wednesday report. Based on that ratio, bitcoin’s current $2.3 trillion market cap would need to rise by roughly 42% — “implying a theoretical bitcoin price of $165,000” — to match the roughly $6 trillion of private investment in gold via ETFs, bars, and coins, they wrote.
The analysts noted that the valuation gap has swung from bitcoin being $36,000 overvalued at the end of 2024 to being about $46,000 undervalued relative to volatility-adjusted gold levels today.
“This mechanical exercise thus could imply significant upside for bitcoin,” they said.
The upside projection comes amid what the JPMorgan analysts describe as a growing embrace of the “debasement trade,” a rise in investor demand for alternative stores of value. Retail investors have led the movement by pouring into bitcoin and gold ETFs since late 2024, driven by concerns over government deficits, inflation, geopolitical risk, central bank credibility, and weakening fiat currencies, especially in emerging markets.
Cumulative flows into spot bitcoin and gold ETFs have climbed sharply over the past year. Bitcoin ETF inflows surged earlier in 2025 before cooling in August, while gold ETF flows have gained ground recently, narrowing the gap between the two. Though institutional investors have engaged via CME futures, the analysts said futures positioning has lagged ETF inflows, indicating a stronger retail tilt in the debasement trade.
As gold prices have surged in recent weeks, the analysts said bitcoin appears more attractive in relative terms. In August, they projected a year-end bitcoin price of $126,000; the new implied target price reflects the impact of gold’s move.
JPMorgan’s outlook joins a broader wave of bullish forecasts for bitcoin heading into year-end, with several firms and analysts targeting $200,000. The cryptocurrency is currently trading around $119,000 according to The Block’s bitcoin price page.
© 2025 The Block. All Rights Reserved. This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.
Trade Crypto On Coinhub Exchange
Trade Crypto On Coinhub Exchange
Stay ahead of the market by turning news insights into trading opportunities. With Coinhub Exchange, you can seamlessly buy, sell, and manage your digital assets, all in one secure platform. Take advantage of real-time market insights, deep liquidity, and fast execution for your favorite cryptocurrencies. Don’t just read about it — trade crypto now!
Disclaimer
The content of this article shown by Coinhub News, powered by The Block, is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial, legal, tax, or investment advice. Coinhub News and its affiliates are not a licensed financial advisor, legal advisor, broker, or tax advisor, and ... should not be considered as professional advice or a recommendation to engage in any specific investment, legal decision, or financial transaction. Cryptocurrency markets are highly speculative and volatile. Readers should perform their own independent research and consult with a qualified professional before making any financial or legal decisions. The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views or opinions of the Company of its affiliates. Additionally, the Company does not make any representations or warranties regarding the accuracy, timeliness, reliability, or completeness of any information in this article. By accessing this content, you acknowledge that any reliance on the information contained in this article is solely at your own risk. The Company is not responsible for any financial losses, legal disputes, or other damages that may arise from reliance on this content or from any investment or legal decisions based on the information provided. Investing in cryptocurrencies involves substantial risks, including the risk of losing your entire investment, and you should carefully consider whether it is appropriate for your circumstances.
Read more
