Kevin Warsh, a former Federal Reserve governor, has emerged as the leading contender to be President Donald Trump’s pick for the next Federal Reserve chair, with Polymarket traders pricing his odds at 93% ahead of Trump’s planned announcement Friday morning.
On Polymarket, Warsh’s odds of being nominated as Fed chair surged to 93% late Thursday, up from 39% earlier in the day. His probability on Kalshi also climbed to 94%.
The final shortlist is widely believed to include, alongside Warsh, National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett, current Fed Governor Christopher Waller, and BlackRock fixed-income chief Rick Rieder, according to CNBC.
The surge in Warsh’s prediction market odds followed media reports on Thursday that the Trump administration is preparing to nominate him as the next Fed chair. Trump is expected to announce his pick on Friday morning.
Kevin Warsh, 55, served on the Federal Reserve’s Board of Governors from 2006 to 2011 under Presidents George W. Bush and Barack Obama. A Stanford Hoover Institution fellow and former Morgan Stanley banker, Warsh is a well-known figure in policymaking circles and was previously considered for top economic roles.
Warsh has expressed relatively positive views on Bitcoin, describing it as a potential “sustainable store of value, like gold” in a Wall Street Journal opinion piece he authored in 2018. “Even if you’re not buying crypto assets, bitcoin’s boom-and-bust cycle is worth watching,” he wrote.
Hawkish
Warsh is widely regarded as a monetary hawk who advocates for tighter policy. “Warsh’s track record as Fed Governor is not the best, but there’s unique credibility in a former inflation hawk advocating for aggressive cuts,” Alex Krüger, an economist and crypto trader, said in a post on X. He added that Rieder and Hassett would be the more bullish candidates for risk assets, at least in the short term.
James Thorne, chief market strategist of Wellington-Altus Private Wealth, suggested that Warsh would bring a rare combination of credibility and flexibility to the role.
“Kevin Warsh remains the strongest choice for Fed chair because he uniquely combines market credibility with a clear willingness to reset policy in a more disciplined, rules‑based direction,” Thorne said, describing him as structurally hawkish on inflation but tactically open to meaningful rate cuts when conditions warrant.
Thorne noted that Warsh’s prior experience as a Fed governor, along with his close ties to influential market figures and Trump allies, could allow for closer coordination between monetary policy, Treasury strategy, and the White House without undermining the Fed’s institutional legitimacy.
Some critics cautioned that Warsh’s reputation as a monetary hawk may clash with Trump’s push for rapid easing, arguing that his recent dovish rhetoric could prove situational.
“Kevin Warsh has been [a] monetary policy hawk his entire career and most importantly, during a time when the labor markets fell out of bed. His dovishness today stems from convenience,” Renaissance Macro Research said in a post on X. “The President risks getting duped.”
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