Kraken sees 2026 crypto markets shifting from hype to structure as macro forces reshape bitcoin cycle

Crypto markets are heading into 2026 with the next major adjustment showing up less in price and more in plumbing, as macro uncertainty collides with a bitcoin BTC cycle increasingly shaped by institutional flows and tightening market structure, according to a new outlook from Kraken.

In a note published on Thursday, Kraken Global Economist Thomas Perfumo argued that bitcoin remains the primary lens for risk sentiment but said the channels for demand, liquidity, and risk have changed. He pointed to the growing role of U.S.-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds and digital asset treasury companies in shaping price discovery — even as headline gains have lagged the scale of inflows.

Perfumo wrote that in 2025, those vehicles represented nearly $44 billion of net spot demand for bitcoin, yet market performance “disappointed relative to expectations,” as long-term holders supplied much of the marketable inventory. “The result is a market that absorbs enormous inflows without the reflexive upside seen in prior cycles,” Perfumo stated.

In his view, this structural read has landed as macro forces remain the dominant swing factor. Perfumo described modest growth expectations, sticky inflation, and a slower pace of policy easing as key constraints on risk assets. He warned that periods of calm can mask deferred volatility, particularly if liquidity conditions tighten again.

Kraken’s outlook also presented stablecoins and regulation as additional structural pillars for 2026. Perfumo said stablecoin liquidity has hit all-time highs and asserted that U.S. regulatory momentum — such as stablecoin legislation like the GENIUS Act and the push toward broader market structure reform — could reshape how onchain liquidity forms and where crypto innovation clusters.

At the same time, crypto’s next leg may depend on whether institutional vehicles regain momentum. Kraken said ETF inflows slowed in 2025 versus 2024 and argued that treasury firms could face a tougher path issuing equity as premiums compress, limiting their ability to drive another powerful impulse higher in bitcoin without a clear risk-on backdrop.

Diversification through bitcoin

Cathie Wood struck a similar macro-first tone in ARK Invest’s 2026 outlook, highlighting how capital has rotated between traditional hedges and digital assets. Wood noted that in 2025, gold rose 65% while bitcoin slipped 6%, even as bitcoin’s longer-run supply profile remains structurally constrained compared with commodities whose production can respond to price.

Also, Wood posited that bitcoin has maintained a low correlation with major asset classes in recent years, reinforcing its case as a portfolio diversifier during volatile macro regimes. “Interestingly, the correlation between bitcoin and gold is lower than that between the S&P 500 and bonds,” she said. “In other words, bitcoin should be a good source of diversification for asset allocators looking for higher returns per unit of risk during the years ahead.”

For traders, the question is whether the recent move toward $100,000 becomes a breakout or a pause. Ruslan Lienkha, chief of markets at YouHodler, said bitcoin looks “undervalued” versus U.S. equities after months of divergence and expects the market to either retest $90,000 or continue toward $100,000, which he described as the next significant resistance level.

Beyond bitcoin

Beyond bitcoin, Kraken flagged tokenization and DeFi token economics as longer-dated drivers that could influence liquidity formation in 2026. Analysts from Standard Chartered shared a similar view. As The Block previously reported, the bank expects Ethereum to outperform its peers as more institutions onboard tokenized real-world assets to the network.

Perfumo added that tokenized financial assets have grown sharply over the past year and stated that tokenization of widely held assets — including large-cap U.S. equities — could open new sources of global demand and onchain settlement activity.

The throughline across all three views is that 2026 may look less like a familiar crypto “cycle” and more like a macro-driven stress test, where structure — how liquidity enters, how it gets expressed, and where it concentrates — matters as much as price.

© 2026 The Block. All Rights Reserved. This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.