‘Look at it with anticipation’: Bitwise CIO sees gold’s parabolic move as a roadmap for bitcoin’s next leg

Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise, has argued that gold’s blistering run in 2025 is a useful analog for bitcoin and may be signaling where BTC is headed next, even as bitcoin trades in a narrow band between about $108,000 and $112,000.

Hougan’s core point is structural: central banks have been the dominant marginal buyers of gold since 2022, and their persistent purchases have been a key force behind gold’s roughly 57% return this year.

Bitcoin, by contrast, has not seen comparable central bank accumulation, he said. Spot ETFs and corporate treasuries have largely supplied recent BTC price support. That difference, Hougan says, helps explain why gold has soared while bitcoin has consolidated.

When a large, steady buyer — in gold’s case, central banks — began accumulating in 2022, many price-sensitive holders sold into the demand, muting early gains. Only after that pool of sellers was exhausted did prices accelerate.

“I think what happened is clear”, Hougan wrote. “In any market, there is a subset of investors who are very price sensitive. When central banks started buying gold feverishly in 2022 and pushing prices up, these investors sold into the rising demand. But eventually that pool of sellers was exhausted, and prices took off.”

Central Bank Gold Purchases, 2010-2024 (tonnes) | Image: Btiwise

A similar dynamic is likely to play out in bitcoin as ETF and corporate demand persist and the remaining seller base thins, he opined. Bitwise’s CIO presented this thesis as a possible answer to a puzzle on investors’ minds: why bitcoin has not run straight to $200,000 despite heavy ETF and corporate purchases.

Since the launch of spot BTC ETFs in January 2024, institutional channels and corporations have purchased roughly 1.39 million BTC, yet the network has generated far less new supply over the same period. This gap should have pushed prices much higher if not for an offsetting pool of sellers.

Hougan’s read is that many of those sellers have now largely been worked through, setting up an inflection point. If ETF and corporate purchases continue at the current clip while onchain supply available for sale declines, bitcoin may move decisively out of its recent range. Conversely, a renewed wave of liquidations or a slowdown in ETF flows could keep BTC contained.

Market data has shown continued inflows into spot bitcoin products following the recent $19 billion liquidation wipeout. The Block reported $477 million in positive net flows for spot bitcoin ETFs on Tuesday, even as gold’s momentum has softened after testing record highs.

Yet, The Block’s price page shows BTC down over 4% in the past week and trading below $108,000. As such, Hougan’s bottom line revolves around patience. The gold arc may have shown the playbook, not the timing.

“Don’t look at gold’s meteoric rise with envy. Look at it with anticipation. It could end up showing us where bitcoin is headed,” Hougan wrote in a note circulated to clients this week. Previously, Bitwise shared a $200,000 end-of-year BTC price target. From current levels, bitcoin would require a roughly 85% rise to reach this level.

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