Mizuho slashes Gemini price target by more than half as weaker trading outweighs card growth

Mizuho has cut its price target for Gemini Space Station (GEMI) to $12 from $26, saying weaker trading activity is expected to weigh on the exchange’s core business even as its card segment continues to grow.

In a Friday note to clients, analysts Dan Dolev and Andrew Jenkins said a softer outlook for crypto asset prices and lower transaction volumes across the platform are likely to constrain near-term revenue growth.

The revised target marks a reduction of more than 50% from Mizuho’s prior view in February, when the firm argued the stock’s slump may have already reflected much of the company’s recent challenges.

Shares of Gemini hit an all-time low of  $5.50 on Monday before recovering slightly, according to The Block price data.

Trading weakness drives estimate cuts

Mizuho lowered its 2027 revenue estimate by roughly 24%, reflecting what it sees as a weaker trading environment across crypto markets. That pressure is expected to weigh on Gemini’s core exchange business, which remains closely tied to asset prices and user activity.

At the same time, the firm expects the company’s revenue mix to continue shifting. Services revenue, including card and interest income, is now projected to account for about 43% of total revenue, up from prior expectations near 36%.

The shift is being driven in part by Gemini’s credit card product, which has become a key growth driver. Transaction volume tied to the card exceeded $1.2 billion in 2025, generating about $33 million in net revenue, according to the note.

Cost cuts offer some support

Despite the weaker top-line outlook, Mizuho pointed to ongoing restructuring efforts as a potential tailwind.

Gemini has reduced headcount by about 30% and exited several international markets, moves expected to lower expenses by roughly 12% by 2027.

Management is also guiding to a 15% to 20% reduction in cash compensation, which could support margin improvement once restructuring costs roll off later this year.

Still, the firm said growth expectations are now “less aggressive,” even if they remain supported by expansion from a relatively low base.

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