One in four public bitcoin treasury firms now trading below their BTC holdings value: K33

The bitcoin treasury boom is losing steam, with one in four public BTC treasury companies now trading at market caps below the value of the bitcoin they hold, according to K33.

Issuing new shares with a market-to-net-asset-value of below one is dilutive, curbing the capacity of some corporate buyers to raise more capital to keep adding to their treasuries. “When firms trade below NAV, issuing shares becomes dilutive because it gives away more ownership (via undervalued shares) than the value it receives in return (BTC),” K33 Head of Research Vetle Lunde explained in a new report.

The sharpest collapse has come from NAKA — the KindlyMD and Nakamoto Holdings merger vehicle — which has shed 96% of its market value from peak and seen its mNAV multiple collapse from 75 to just 0.7. Tether-backed Twenty One, Semler Scientific, and The Smarter Web Company are also among those with an mNAV currently less than 1, according to Bitcoin Treasuries data.

More broadly, the mean mNAV multiple across listed treasury firms still sits at 2.8, down from 3.76 in April, but the distribution is skewed. Smaller firms are increasingly below water, though the largest players still carry meaningful premiums, Lunde noted.

Percent of public BTC treasury companies trading below NAV. Image: K33.

Corporate bitcoin acquisitions fade

Michael Saylor’s Strategy (MSTR), the sector’s heavyweight and pioneer of the bitcoin treasury playbook, has seen its premium fall to 1.26 — the lowest since March 2024. That leaves Strategy with diminished scope to tap equity markets for new BTC buys, reflected in its lower weekly acquisitions of late. “This reduces Strategy’s ability to purchase BTC substantially and points toward a materially lower buyside demand from one of the most important supply absorbers over the past year,” Lunde said.

MSTR premium to BTC value. Image: K33.

The slowdown is already visible in overall flows. Bitcoin treasury companies have bought an average of 1,428 BTC per day in September so far, the lowest pace since May and a sign that the treasury firm tantrum in equity markets is bleeding into spot demand, the analyst highlighted, adding that the fading premiums are rational. “Treasury firms acting as pure-play accumulation vehicles should not trade at a premium to their balance sheet due to higher cost burdens stemming from advisory fees, insider incentives, and complex capital structures,” he said. “Exceptions exist when the firm may experience operational gains in other business verticals from a strong BTC balance sheet.”

The broader picture is that, with public treasury holdings now surpassing 1 million BTC, the market may be reverting to more organic demand impulses — from ETFs and retail investors — rather than relying on corporate treasuries to set the marginal bid, Lunde suggested.

Average daily growth in BTC holdings, public companies, MoM. Image: K33.

CME at modest premiums again

Meanwhile, CME bitcoin futures have returned to trading at modest premiums over offshore perpetuals, reversing the discounts that often appear around overheated market tops, according to the report.

Historically, CME discounts have lined up with local peaks, while offshore perps — heavily influenced by leverage — tend to show frothy premiums when speculative positioning builds. The current state suggests a healthier equilibrium, with institutional flows anchoring CME closer to spot prices, Lunde said.

Annualized CME basis vs. annualized funding rate. Image: K33.

Funding rates, however, remain above their yearly average at nearly 6% over the past week, compared to a 5.4% year-to-date mean. That, combined with perp open interest well above pre-August highs, points to a lingering long bias across leveraged players. Lunde warned this could still culminate in a sharp squeeze of over-crowded longs, but for now, the balance between CME premiums and funding rates reflects a market that is less stretched than it was when bitcoin last traded north of $115,000.