Polymarket bettors send death threats to reporter over missile report tied to $14 million prediction market pool

A reporter covering the ongoing conflict between Israel, the U.S., and Iran and its regional spillover said he received death threats from individuals attempting to pressure him to change his reporting.

In a detailed account published in The Times of Israel on Monday, military correspondent Emanuel Fabian said gamblers who had placed wagers on Polymarket began contacting him after he reported that an Iranian missile struck an open area near the Israeli city of Beit Shemesh on March 10.

Fabian said the individuals appeared to be trying to influence the outcome of a Polymarket contract titled “Iran strikes Israel on…?” which had more than $14 million wagered as of the March 10 date.

Under the market’s rules, the contract would resolve “yes” if Iran carried out a missile, drone, or airstrike on Israeli soil that day. However, a separate clause stated that intercepted projectiles would not qualify.

Fabian said he received dozens of messages across email, social media, and messaging apps, including a stream of WhatsApp threats from one individual warning him that he would “finish” him if the article was not changed.

Fabian said multiple individuals had asked him to revise his report to state that the missile had been intercepted. He declined, saying the information he published was based on statements from Israeli rescue services and military sources.

He said he ultimately filed a police report and provided investigators with the communications.

Insiders and influence in prediction markets

Event-based trading platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi have expanded rapidly over the past year, with billions of dollars flowing into contracts tied to elections, policy decisions, and geopolitical developments.

At the same time, critics warn that markets tied to war, deaths, or political actions could create incentives for manipulation or insider trading.

Lawmakers in Washington DC have already begun moving to restrict such contracts. Earlier this month, Sen. Adam Schiff and Rep. Mike Levin introduced the “Death Bets Act,” legislation that would ban prediction market contracts tied to war, assassination, or fatalities.

“Betting on war and death should be illegal,” Levin said in announcing the bill.

Separately, Sen. Chris Murphy has proposed banning contracts tied to government actions such as military strikes after blockchain analytics firm Bubblemaps identified several wallets that collectively earned roughly $1 million betting that the U.S. would launch attacks on Iran shortly before the strikes occurred.

Prediction markets have also faced backlash over specific contracts. Earlier this month, Polymarket removed a market allowing users to wager on whether a nuclear weapon would be detonated this year following criticism online. Kalshi also settled a market on Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s potential ouster at pre-death prices following his assassination in late February, citing a “death carveout.”

Despite the controversy, trading activity across prediction platforms continues to grow. According to The Block’s data dashboard, Kalshi recorded about $10.4 billion in trading volume in February while Polymarket logged roughly $7.9 billion, according to The Block data. The pair is currently on pace to reach a seventh consecutive monthly high of around $20 billion.

Fabian warned in his account that the episode shows how prediction markets could begin to intersect with journalism itself.

“The attempt by these gamblers to pressure me to change my reporting so that they would win their bet did not and will not succeed,” he wrote.

The Block reached out to Fabian for comment.

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