Polymarket removes nuclear detonation market after backlash

Polymarket has removed an event contract on whether a nuclear weapon would be detonated this year, amid growing controversy over prediction markets tied to death and war.

The now-archived market offered several resolution timelines — March 31, June 30, and before 2027. Before the page was taken down, it had attracted at least $650,000 in volume, according to a web cache snapshot.

The event page, which now displays the message “The event has been archived,” was originally titled “Nuclear weapon detonation by…?”

Polymarket also deleted an earlier Tuesday post on X stating that the market indicated a 22% chance a nuclear weapon would be detonated this year.

The event sparked backlash on social media, with critics raising concerns that prediction markets tied to military actions could enable individuals with non-public information to place profitable bets.

The Block has reached out to Polymarket for comment.

Growing scrutiny

The episode adds to increasing scrutiny of geopolitical prediction markets — particularly those tied to war and weapons — as regulators and lawmakers question whether such platforms adequately guard against insider trading and the misuse of non-public information.

The concerns intensified last weekend after onchain analytics firm Bubblemaps flagged several newly created wallets that collectively earned roughly $1 million by betting that the U.S. would launch military strikes against Iran shortly before the attacks occurred.

The controversy also follows disputes over geopolitical prediction markets on rival platform Kalshi. A market on whether Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei would be removed from power drew backlash after his death, with Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour defending the market’s design. Kalshi said the contract was structured to avoid resolving directly on a death outcome and invoked a “death carveout” clause to settle positions at the last traded price.

On Friday, Mansour also said that “regulated prediction markets are not allowed to do war markets.”

Scrutiny of the sector is also mounting in Washington. Last week, six Democratic senators led by Adam Schiff urged the Commodity Futures Trading Commission to prohibit prediction contracts tied to an individual’s death, citing examples on Polymarket involving the fates of political figures.

CFTC Chair Michael Selig signaled Tuesday that the agency is preparing new rulemaking and guidance for prediction markets, telling industry participants to “stay tuned” as regulators work to establish clearer standards for event contracts.