Standard Chartered reaffirms $200K year-end bitcoin forecast, citing ETF flows, corporate treasury demand and policy tailwinds

Bitcoin could stage its biggest dollar rally on record in the second half of 2025 as ETF inflows, corporate treasuries, and a friendlier policy backdrop converge, Standard Chartered said in a new H2 2025 outlook shared with The Block. Geoffrey Kendrick, the bank’s global head of digital assets research, told clients he expects BTC to hit $135,000 by Sept. 30 and reiterated a $200,000 target by Dec. 31 — almost doubling from Wednesday’s $107,800 spot price.

Asset manager Bitwise has also shared a $200,000 BTC price prediction, citing familiar catalysts related to institutional demand and regulatory developments around stablecoins. Conversely, the firm is less optimistic about new ATHs for altcoin leaders ETH and SOL.

Q3 and Q4 flows set to top Q2 buying

Spot ETFs and treasury buyers scooped up 245,000 BTC in the second quarter. Kendrick forecasts that figure will be topped in both Q3 and Q4 as passive allocations continue and a widening roster of public companies copy Strategy’s leveraged playbook. He notes that non-Strategy treasuries added an estimated 56,000 BTC last quarter, not far off Michael Saylor’s accumulation of approximately 69,000 bitcoins, despite holding one-fifth of Strategy’s stack.

“While MSTR’s pace of buying has slowed in recent months, the Q2 surge in non-MSTR buying suggests that newer entrants to the space can take up any slack in Q3,” Kendrick wrote. “As a result, we expect Bitcoin treasuries as a whole to buy more BTC in Q3 than they did in Q2 — a positive driver of flows.”

Investor rotation from traditional safe havens to BTC amid geopolitical strife also suggests growing confidence. Q2’s $12.4 billion of ETF inflows outpaced gold ETF inflows during a tense Middle-East quarter — an encouraging sign for bitcoin’s appeal as a macro asset in Kendrick’s view. At the same time, hedge-fund shorts in Chicago futures barely grew, leaving net ETF demand effectively unhedged.

Dead halving hangover and possible policy levers

According to Standard Chartered’s expert, corporate buying and flows — not the post-halving supply and cyclical narratives — now set the price cadence. In prior cycles, Bitcoin peaked 526 and 547 days after the halving, then slid. Kendrick says the new flow regime kills that pattern because ETFs and treasuries did not exist in earlier cycles. He projects long-term holders will sell less than in 2025 and that continued inflows will overpower any profit-taking.

Additionally, Kendrick listed three policy levers that could add fuel to Bitcoin’s surge. Among these is a possible early announcement by President Donald Trump naming a successor to Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, which could bolster BTC prices as markets push to price rate cuts sooner and raise questions about Fed independence. The call also assumes that 10-year Treasury term premiums will continue to rise — a metric Kendrick tracks closely, as bitcoin has traded in lockstep with shifts in term premiums since early 2024.

Bitcoin correlation to U.S. Treasury term premium and BTC long-term holder net position. Images: Standard Chartered

Standard Chartered also foresees the passage of the bipartisan GENIUS stablecoin bill, an event that would broaden regulated dollar-token use and funnel retail money crypto, with Bitcoin primed as a major beneficiary. Additional sovereign buying, hinted at in 13F filings and expected to widen when the next batch lands in August, is also poised to propel BTC’s price higher.

Those forces, he argues, should lift bitcoin to a new all-time high of $135,000 in Q3 and convince traders that the historic 18-month post-halving slump will not be repeated. Any late-September wobble tied to that narrative should fade as ETF and treasury demand absorb supply, Kendrick opined.

Bitcoin was little changed near $107,790 on Wednesday, up 15% year-to-date, according to TradingView, but still below the $111,814 record set in April, as per The Block’s price page. If Kendrick’s $200,000 end-of-year price forecast lands, the asset would add more than $92,000 in six months — the largest second-half dollar gain in its 15-year history.

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