The Daily: Bitcoin hits six-month low amid cycle peak fears, Strategy’s ‘big week,’ and more

The following article is adapted from The Block’s newsletter, The Daily, which comes out on weekday afternoons.

Happy Monday! Bitcoin crossed a major supply milestone this morning, with mined coins surpassing 19.95 million BTC — equivalent to 95% of the network’s fixed 21 million cap — with 115 years of issuance to go.

In today’s newsletter, bitcoin hits a six-month low amid fears of a four-year cycle peak, Michael Saylor’s Strategy makes its biggest bitcoin purchase since July, Japan moves to reclassify crypto, and more.

Meanwhile, Cboe is now set to launch its perpetual-style bitcoin and ether futures on Dec. 15.

Let’s get started!

P.S. Don’t forget to check out The Funding, a biweekly rundown of crypto VC trends. It’s a great read — and just like The Daily, it’s free to subscribe!

Bitcoin hits six-month low amid cycle peak fears

Bitcoin slid to a six-month low under $93,000 as tightening liquidity, elevated government cash balances, and shifting rate expectations pressured markets, analysts said.

• Caladan Research Lead Derek Lim told The Block he expects a near-term liquidity rebound as the U.S. government spending resumes and Japan weighs a $110 billion stimulus package, easing one of the market’s biggest headwinds.
• Despite $619 million in liquidations and extreme fear readings, MHC Digital Group Head of Markets Edward Carroll argued that bitcoin’s pullback reflects funding stress rather than a break in crypto fundamentals.
• BTC Markets Crypto Analyst Rachael Lucas said the market is approaching a bottom, with bitcoin’s key support zone near $88,000 to $91,000 amid upcoming structural tailwinds.
• Meanwhile, analysts at Bernstein said the current 25% bitcoin drawdown “does not feel like a cycle-peak,” pointing instead to a shallow correction supported by ETF demand and heavy absorption of long-term holder selling despite four-year cycle top fears.

Strategy’s ‘big week’

Michael Saylor’s Strategy added 8,178 BTC for $836 million last week, lifting its holdings to 649,870 BTC ($61.7 billion), with unrealized gains of roughly $13.3 billion.

• The acquisitions were funded through at-the-market sales of its growing preferred-stock stack, including STRK, STRF, and STRC, plus the $715 million issuance of its new euro-denominated preferred stock, STRE.
• On Friday, Saylor slammed rumors that the firm sold 47,000 BTC, insisting it was buying aggressively, later sharing an update on Strategy’s bitcoin acquisition tracker on Sunday, stating, “₿ig week.”
• Bernstein analysts also dismissed fears of forced selling as “undue,” arguing Strategy’s leverage is conservative, its liquidity access is strong, and management remains committed to buying through the correction.

Japan moves to reclassify crypto and adopt major tax relief

Japan’s Financial Services Agency has finalized plans to reclassify 105 cryptocurrencies as financial products, pulling them under stricter disclosure and oversight rules, according to local media reports.

• Exchanges listing these assets will need to disclose key characteristics, such as whether the token has an issuer, the underlying blockchain technology used, and price volatility, while facing new insider-trading restrictions.
• However, the change could also see the tax rate on crypto income slashed from as high as 55% to 20%, bringing it in line with stock investment taxation, pending a 2026 review.
• The reforms signal Japan’s push to reinvent itself as a Web3 hub after years of caution, with stablecoin initiatives and potential bank crypto trading services also advancing.

Hong Kong launches tokenized deposit pilot with real-value transactions

The Hong Kong Monetary Authority has launched the pilot phase of Project Ensemble to move tokenized deposits and other digital assets from controlled sandbox tests to live, real-value transactions.

• The de facto central bank’s initiative will run through 2026, starting with tokenized money-market fund trades and real-time liquidity and treasury management.
• The HKMA plans to support interbank settlement through its RTGS system before upgrading to 24/7 settlement in tokenized central bank money over time.
• The pilot underscores Hong Kong’s push to lead Asia’s tokenization race as Singapore accelerates its own trials for tokenized bills and cross-chain deposit transfers.

Aave Labs to launch high-yield savings app with ‘insurance-backed protection’ for deposits

Aave Labs unveiled a high-yield savings app offering up to 9% interest and “insurance-backed protection” on deposits up to $1 million.

• Initially available on iOS, the app will support deposits and withdrawals across more than 12,000 banks and debit cards, with users earning a 5% base rate and optional boosts for referrals and KYC verification, the firm said.
• Aave positions the product as a safer, bank-like alternative to traditional DeFi, with over-collateralized lending markets backing deposits and round-the-clock interest accrual.

In the next 24 hours

• It’s quiet on the economic calendar front.
• U.S. FOMC member Thomas Barkin will speak at 11 a.m. ET on Tuesday.
• Melania Meme, Oasis, and Bubblemaps are set for token unlocks.
• Devconnect continues in Buenos Aires.

Never miss a beat with The Block’s daily digest of the most influential events happening across the digital asset ecosystem.

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