The Daily: Bitwise predicts bitcoin all-time highs in 2026, Ark Invest buys the dip, spot XRP ETFs top $1B in cumulative inflows, and more

The following article is adapted from The Block’s newsletter, The Daily, which comes out on weekday afternoons.

Happy Tuesday! Crypto markets are struggling to gain traction, with analysts saying renewed macro jitters, thin year-end liquidity, and a rapid shift into risk-off positioning are driving traders toward safer assets.

In today’s newsletter, Bitwise predicts new bitcoin all-time highs in 2026, Ark Invest buys the dip, spot XRP ETFs surpass $1 billion in cumulative inflows, and more.

Meanwhile, SEC Chair Paul Atkins warns crypto could become a “powerful financial surveillance” tool, but sees a path forward without giving up privacy.

P.S. Don’t forget to check out The Funding, a biweekly rundown of crypto VC trends. It’s a great read — and just like The Daily, it’s free to subscribe!

Bitwise CIO says bitcoin will break 4-year cycle and set new all-time highs in 2026

Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan predicted bitcoin will break its historical four-year cycle and set new all-time highs in 2026 as structural market forces weaken past patterns.

• Hougan argued that diminishing halving impacts, falling interest rate expectations, and fewer leverage-driven blowups remove key drivers of previous boom-and-bust cycles.
• He also expects institutional adoption to accelerate as major wealth platforms and Wall Street firms expand allocations under a more supportive U.S. regulatory backdrop.
• Additionally, Hougan said bitcoin volatility will continue to decline in 2026, noting it was less volatile than Nvidia stock throughout 2025 as traditional vehicles like ETFs broaden the investor base.
• He also forecasts lower correlation between bitcoin and equities overall, with crypto-specific catalysts supporting prices even if stock markets face pressure from valuation concerns and slower economic growth.
• Taken together, Hougan said the outlook points to a rare trifecta of strong returns, lower volatility, and falling correlations that could attract tens of billions of dollars in new institutional investment.

Cathie Wood’s Ark Invest buys the dip on BitMine, Coinbase and Circle shares

Ark Invest bought the dip across multiple crypto-linked equities, deploying millions of dollars into BitMine, Coinbase, Circle, Block, and Bullish during a broad market selloff on Monday.

• The Cathie Wood-led firm added roughly $17 million worth of BitMine shares, $16.3 million of Coinbase shares, and $10.8 million of Circle shares across its ARKK, ARKW, and ARKF funds.
• The purchased stocks fell sharply on the day, with BitMine dropping 11.2%, while Circle and Coinbase slipped 9.6% and 6.4%, respectively.
• The firm’s latest rebalancing follows Wood’s recent comments that deflationary forces from technological innovation are building, potentially setting up a macro shift next year.

Japan’s SBI Holdings to launch yen-pegged stablecoin with Startale

Tokyo-listed financial conglomerate SBI Holdings is partnering with blockchain firm Startale Group to launch a fully regulated, yen-pegged stablecoin aimed at global settlement and institutional use in Q2 2026.

• The project combines SBI’s financial infrastructure with Startale’s web3 expertise, including its role in the Sony-backed Ethereum Layer 2 network Soneium.
• “The transition to a ‘token economy’ is now an irreversible societal trend,” SBI Chairman and President Yoshitaka Kitao said. “By circulating it both domestically and globally, we aim to dramatically accelerate the movement toward providing digital financial services that are fully integrated with traditional finance.”
• The yen stablecoin will complement Startale’s existing USDSC and support the pair’s planned 24/7 tokenized stock exchange as Japan accelerates adoption of regulated stablecoins.

RedotPay raises $107 million Series B to expand stablecoin payments platform

RedotPay raised $107 million in an “oversubscribed” Series B led by Goodwater Capital, with participation from Pantera Capital, Blockchain Capital, and Circle Ventures, among others.

• The stablecoin payments fintech reports more than $10 billion in annualized payment volume and over $150 million in annualized revenue while operating profitably.
• RedotPay said it now serves more than 6 million users across 100-plus markets, adding over 3 million new users in 2025 as both crypto-native and non-crypto cross-border transfer adoption accelerated.
• The company plans to deploy the fresh capital toward product development, compliance and licensing expansion, and strategic acquisitions to scale its global payments infrastructure.

Spot XRP ETFs surpass $1 billion in cumulative inflows since November launch

U.S. pure spot XRP ETFs have officially crossed $1 billion in cumulative net inflows, just over a month since their November launch.

• The spot XRP ETFs added another $10.9 million on Monday to reach the milestone, with funds from Canary Capital, Grayscale, and Franklin Templeton all reporting net inflows, according to SoSoValue data.
• “Spot XRP ETFs surpassing $1B in cumulative inflows shows rising institutional appetite for regulated exposure beyond BTC and ETH,” Kronos Research CIO Vincent Liu said. “Despite a cautious macro backdrop, the steady inflows suggest investors are positioning early around assets with improving regulatory clarity and differentiated narratives.”

In the next 24 hours

• UK and Eurozone CPI inflation numbers are released at 2 a.m. ET on Wednesday. U.S. mortgage data follow at 7 a.m.
• U.S. FOMC members John Williams and Raphael Bostic will speak at 9:05 a.m. and 12:30 p.m., respectively.
• ApeCoin and ZKsync are among the crypto projects set for token unlocks.

Never miss a beat with The Block’s daily digest of the most influential events happening across the digital asset ecosystem.

© 2025 The Block. All Rights Reserved. This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.