‘Too cheap to sell here’: Bernstein sees 212% upside for Coinbase stock as annual trading volume hits $5.2 trillion

Analysts at research and brokerage firm Bernstein maintained their long-standing bullish stance on Coinbase (COIN), arguing the stock is “too cheap to sell” even as it tumbled Thursday amid the company’s fourth-quarter results that fell short of Wall Street estimates. 

The stock closed at $141.09 on Feb. 12, near the bottom of its 52-week range of $444.65 to $139.36, according to the note. Coinbase has declined 37.6% year-to-date and 48.7% over the past 12 months, underperforming the S&P 500 by 61.6% during that period.

In a note to clients on Friday, the analysts led by Gautam Chhugani shrugged off the plunge, targeting 212% upside for the digital asset exchange and noting that while the company remains fully exposed to the inherent volatility of crypto markets, the stock is trading at roughly 11 times its projected 2025 earnings based on enterprise value.

“With a strong balance sheet ($5.4 billion net cash and digital assets), COIN trades at ~11 times EV/2025 LTM, and we still see the market recovering from here into 2026 and 2027,” the analysts wrote in the note. “Hence, we would wait out the crypto volatility and take the pain here, rather than panic close to the market lows.” 

The analysts pointed to growing trading activity on Coinbase as support for their long-term thesis. Total trading volume on the exchange reached $5.2 trillion in 2025, up more than 150% year-over-year, according to the note. 

Bernstein attributed the growth to Coinbase’s Deribit acquisition, completed in mid-August, and the continued expansion of its derivatives business. While consumer trading volume declined 6% quarter-over-quarter to $56 billion in Q4, institutional revenue grew 37% sequentially, with implied yield on institutional volume rising to 8.6 basis points from 5.7 basis points in the third quarter, the note said. 

However, assets on the platform fell 27% from the prior quarter to $376 billion as of Dec. 31, a decline the analysts said was primarily due to lower average crypto prices.

Financial results and 2026 outlook 

Coinbase reported $1.8 billion in revenue, a 5% decline from the prior quarter. Transaction revenue fell 6% sequentially, while subscription and services revenue declined 3% over the same period.  

The company recorded a net loss of $667 million, including a $718 million unrealized loss on its crypto investment portfolio and a $395 million loss on strategic investments, resulting in adjusted net income of $178 million. 

The Bernstein analysts outlined three strategic priorities for Coinbase in 2026, including its “everything exchange” push to position the platform as a one-stop venue for crypto, derivatives, equities and prediction markets, with roughly 10,000 stock tickers now rolling out.

On stablecoin and payments, management is focused on increasing utility and scaling payments infrastructure, while the onchain finance priority includes broader DeFi integrations within the Coinbase app and expanded DEX trading capabilities, including the integration of Jupiter on Solana, according to the note.

Bernstein reiterated its outperform rating and $440 price target, concluding that Coinbase’s diversified product roadmap and 12 products now exceed $100 million in ARR. 

Gautam Chhugani maintains long positions in various cryptocurrencies. Certain affiliates of Bernstein act as market makers or liquidity providers in the equity securities of Coinbase.

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