Trump’s social media post on crypto bill ‘not enough’ to move legislation, TD Cowen says

U.S. President Donald Trump’s call for banks to make a deal with the crypto industry over the CLARITY Act is constructive, but it is unlikely to break the current legislative deadlock, according to TD Cowen.

Trump’s post on his Truth Social platform “is not enough,” Jaret Seiberg, managing director at TD Cowen’s Washington Research Group, said in a Wednesday note, noting that Trump frequently posts on social media, which dilutes the impact of any single post.

“To us, it will require the President to directly participate in the negotiations between the banks and the crypto sector,” Seiberg said. “It is hard for us to see that occurring while the United States is in armed conflict with Iran.”

This is not the first time Seiberg has said Trump’s direct involvement will be required to move the crypto market structure legislation forward. He added that the president would need to meet directly with the parties rather than rely on social media, which is why “we do not see this posting as unsticking the bill.”

Trump wrote Tuesday that banks “need to make a good deal with the Crypto Industry” rather than oppose provisions allowing crypto platforms to offer yield on stablecoins in order to advance legislation that has stalled in Congress. He also wrote that the GENIUS Act, the stablecoin legislation signed into law last year, “is being threatened and undermined by the Banks, and that is unacceptable — We are not going to allow it. The U.S. needs to get Market Structure done, ASAP.”

What is needed to pass the crypto bill

Two key issues are slowing the legislation, the first of which is stablecoin yield. Crypto companies want to offer rewards to users who hold stablecoins, while banks argue that paying yield could pull deposits away from traditional banks and create financial stability risks.

The second is a conflict-of-interest debate. Democrats are pushing for rules that would stop senior government officials and their families, including the President, from engaging in certain crypto-related financial activities. The White House has already hosted several closed-door meetings between crypto firms and banking groups as talks continue, with a compromise still possible, but the timeline remains uncertain.

“We have long argued that it will require the personal involvement of President Trump to get the banking industry to accept a version of the CLARITY Act that does not include a ban on platforms paying yield on stablecoins,” Seiberg said.

In his Truth Social post, Trump also pointed to “record profits” among banks as a reason they should compromise with the crypto industry. Seiberg interpreted that message as suggesting the administration believes banks have benefited from policies under Trump and therefore should accept a version of the CLARITY Act that allows platforms to pay yield on stablecoins.

Earlier this week, Seiberg said banks are likely to eventually lose the stablecoin yield fight, as opposing consumer rewards may prove difficult to sustain politically.

Even if the stablecoin yield dispute is resolved, another point of contention involves proposed conflict-of-interest restrictions that would bar senior government officials and their families from owning crypto businesses. Seiberg reiterated he believes Trump would oppose such a provision if it applied immediately to his administration. As a result, he suggested a potential compromise could involve delaying the restriction until after the 2029 presidential inauguration and filling vacant Democratic seats at the Securities and Exchange Commission and Commodity Futures Trading Commission to provide political balance.

Beyond those issues, the bill faces additional political hurdles in the Senate. Seiberg noted that lawmakers would still need to secure support from as many as ten Democratic senators for the legislation to advance. Those talks appear largely paused while banks and crypto firms attempt to resolve their differences over yield rules, he said.

The CLARITY Act has been under discussion for more than a year and aims to establish a comprehensive regulatory framework for digital assets, including defining which tokens fall under the jurisdiction of the CFTC or the SEC. The House approved a version of the legislation last year, but the Senate has yet to move the bill to a final vote amid continued lobbying from both banks and crypto companies.

 “Our view is that the real deadline for enacting CLARITY is the start of the August recess,” Seiberg said. “We reject the idea that bipartisan legislation cannot pass in the spring or summer of an election year. In our experience, Congress is able to keep working on bipartisan bills well into summer of an election year.”

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