The 12 U.S.-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds logged their second straight session of outflows Thursday, shedding $410.37 million as the underlying asset slid to $65,266 following stronger-than-expected U.S. payroll data.
Thursday’s withdrawals bring the two-day total to $686.27 million, according to SoSoValue data. All products posted zero or negative flows, with WisdomTree and Hashdex funds flat on the day.
BlackRock’s IBIT accounted for the largest single outflow at $157.56 million, while Fidelity’s FBTC bled $104.13 million. Grayscale and Bitwise products combined for $65 million in redemptions.
Despite the immediate pressure, the long-term institutional footprint of these vehicles remains substantial. Since their inception two years ago, U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs have generated $54.31 billion in total net inflows. These funds currently hold aggregate net assets representing 6.34% of the total bitcoin market capitalization, according to SoSoValue.
Macro data and analyst resets frame the pullback
Thursday’s selloff extended after the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a day earlier that January nonfarm payrolls rose 130,000, exceeding the Dow Jones consensus estimate of 55,000. The data added to market expectations that the Federal Reserve will hold its policy rate, with no cuts priced until after a potential leadership transition at the central bank later this year.
The broader digital asset market contracted 1.65% in the 24 hours ending Thursday, according to The Block’s prices page. Bitcoin traded at approximately $66,000, representing a 48% decline from its all-time high of $126,080 established in October 2025.
Meanwhile, the recent price action has prompted two large financial institutions to revise their near-term digital asset forecasts.
Standard Chartered’s head of digital assets research, Geoffrey Kendrick, said in an email to The Block on Thursday that he expects bitcoin to fall to $50,000 or just below, with ether dropping to $1,400. The bank’s year-end 2026 bitcoin forecast now stands at $100,000, a 33% reduction from the $150,000 target set previously and a 67% cut from the $300,000 forecast last December. The ether year-end target was lowered to $4,000 from $7,500.
Separately, JPMorgan cut its estimate of bitcoin’s production cost to $77,000 from $90,000, a decline of about 14%, citing lower hashrate and mining difficulty. Analysts led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou reiterated a long-term bitcoin target of $266,000 and said they remain positive on crypto markets for 2026.
© 2026 The Block. All Rights Reserved. This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.
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